Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew April 3 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Q2 off to an interesting start already


Good Morning,

Welcome to an interesting start to Q2. While Friday had closed with risk sentiment fully on, surprising oil production cuts worry markets. OPEC members announced daily production cuts, Russia followed. The Biden administration called the move unwise.

Oil prices jumped and equities were weighed down by the decision as higher energy costs equal higher inflation. US yields rise and the probability of a further 25 BPS hike rose to 65%. The USD gains with the USD Index almost 1% higher, EURUSD is trading at 1.0790, Cable 1.2280 and USDJPY 133.50. In Q1, 

Oil is now up 4.4% to trade at 79.00 USD per barrel.

Gold and Silver lost, Silver fell to 23.60 from 24.10 and Gold 1953. Gold ended Q1 at the highest quarterly close ever. In Q1, Silver lost 1.37% and Gold gained 7.1%. 

US Indexes had gained significantly on Friday after the PCE came lower than expected and general optimism, the Dow added 1.3%, the S&P 500 and the  1.4%, Nasdaq 1.7%. The best sector in q1 was technology, up 22%. Followed by communications, Financials, Energy and Healthcare were the laggers. Tesla could gain 6.2% on Friday and also posted record production numbers over the weekend. In Q1 the stock gained 68%, Nvidia was up a stunning 90%, Amazon 23% and Apple 27%. Bitcoin also added 67% in the first Quarter. 

The coming week is thin key data points with the outlier being the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday. It is always interesting when this number is published on Good Friday. Liquidity is low and it always catches a significant number of traders by surprise.

Trade safely.

Key stories our trading desk had on the radar were:

1. Nasdaq – Last week,  the Nasdaq index officially entered a bull market by extending its rally to 20% from the December 2022 lows and had the best quarter since 2020.

2. Novo Nordisk - WHO consider adding Novo’s obesity drugs to its 'essential' medicines list leading to another rally in the stock.

3. Alibaba - Unveiled a historic overhaul this week announcing the company is splitting into 6 units.

4. Real Estate Companies – Key risk for the markets. Watch this space in the weeks ahead.

Monday:

Japan Tankan
International PMI

Tuesday

RBA Cash rate
US Factory Orders

Wednesday

International PMI
German Idustrial Orders

Thursday:
German Idustrial Output
Swiss FX reserves
US Jobs data

Friday:

 Good Friday
Non Farm Payrolls

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.