Key Stories from the past week: Geopolitical tensions short-lived

Note: This is marketing material.

Following the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the initial expectation was for a spike in volatility and a flight to haven, but calm was restored relatively quickly as tensions eased. US benchmarks tested all-time highs as trade deals saw optimism. Shell swatted away rumours of a BP takeover. Tesla ticked up after last weekend’s robotaxi launch. Nvidia retook the title of world’s largest company. Platinum and copper had strong weeks. While Nike posted an earnings beat. More below on this week’s key stories. 


Greenback under pressure
The U.S. Dollar fell to a 3-year low this week as the market adjusts away from conditions that have been supportive for so long – US exceptionalism, rate differentials, sound reputation, and haven demand. Extra pressure was applied this week on speculation Trump could soon nominate a new Fed Chair that shares his dovish view.
Lame duck Powell speculation hammers USD further

Big moves from oil
Despite the noise of Israel/Iran/US confrontation significantly reducing over the week, it was still a key market event. Oil prices saw the most impact with a sharp fall from Monday’s highs as the tensions eased and markets assessed the risks as past peak.
Broad reversal led by energy
Oil tumbles as Hormuz risk premium evaporates

Defence spending commitment
Investors assessed NATO’s move to lift defense spending targets to 5% of GDP and stocks like Rheinmetall outperformed, Babcock surged on better guidance and a buyback plan. Czechoslovakia group refinanced €1.8bn at half the previous interest cost as the appetite for the sector continues.
Europe has pledged to spend more on defence

Novo Nordisk acts on copycat drugs
Novo Nordisk said it is ending its collaboration with Hims & Hers due to concerns the company was engaging in “deceptive promotion and selling of illegitimate, knock off version of Wegovy that put patients’ safety at risk”. Shares in Novo Nordisk lost -5% on Monday while Hims & Hers fell 35% on the news.
After its biggest drop ever......is HIMS a buy?


Next week brings the US Independence Day bank holiday so US markets will finish early (13:30) on Thursday 3rd July and be closed on Friday 4th July. Nonfarm payrolls will be brought forward from its usual 1st Friday slot. Data releases include China Jun PMIs, German Jun CPI (Monday). EU Jun CPI, US June ISM Manufacturing, US May JOLTS job openings (Tuesday). US Jun ADP employment (Wednesday), US Jun Nonfarm Payrolls, US June Non-Manufacturing (Thursday).