Morning Brew April 24 2026

Good morning,

While Israel and Lebanon have extended their fragile ceasefire, Donald Trump indicated he is in no hurry to make a deal and is content to wait for the best possible outcome.

There is no scheduled date for new peace talks, which continues to weigh on global supply chains.

The EU is holding its first summit without Viktor Orbán in 16 years, which may lead to a more decisive stance—especially regarding Ukraine and Russia. A key question will be whether the EU can agree on a united approach to the Middle East. Curiously, Bild headlined yesterday evening that the Bundeswehr would cancel holidays for a possible mission; however, this information is now no longer available.
The German government will decide on reducing the fuel tax by 17% starting May 1 ^st .
120 US Organizations warned football fans to travel to the US due to possible human rights violations.
As we head into a hectic week filled with data, earnings, and news, today is void of critical data. The most interesting will be the German IFO Index, earnings from P&G, and the University of Michigan. Of course, any progress or escalation in the Middle East can make or break the day at any point in time.
This morning, sentiment is a little choppy: equities are somewhat friendly, while precious metals are approximately 0.5% lower (4,675 and 75). Yields are up, the US 10's are at 4.33%, the USD is higher with EUR/USD at 1.1680, GBP/USD at 1.3460, and USD/JPY is approaching the important 160 mark again.

As last week, I expect either a nervous day or a boring one, as is often the case when there is little data on a Friday.

Next week we are expecting key earnings, with five of the Magnificent 7 reporting within two days: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon on April 29, 2026 , and Apple on April 30, 2026 .

We are also expecting rate decisions from key central banks: Canada, the US, EU, and UK will announce rates on Wednesday and Thursday; Japan will announce rates on Tuesday. Both EU and US inflation data will be released on Thursday, and the Nonfarm Payroll will be published on May 8 ^th as planned. The major central banks are expected to leave rates unchanged, with probabilities in the 90% range. However, their comments and projections will be closely watched. It is also Month end.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 Index slid 0.4% to 7,108.40, Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.4%. Technology stocks led the decline, with the sector shedding 1.5%, dragged down by ServiceNow, which plunged 17.8% after cutting its full-year forecast. Lockheed Martin lost 4.7% after reporting an 11% decline in earnings, which was more than expected. In after-hours trading, Intel delivered a blockbuster sales forecast, with revenue guidance of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion for the June quarter versus estimates of $13 billion, sending shares up 20%. This added $64 billion to its market value and extended its 81% rebound so far this year.

European stocks closed slightly higher on Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advancing to 614.20, having fluctuated as markets digested a flurry of earnings and conflicting messaging about the conflict in the Middle East. Food giant Nestlé was the biggest point gainer, increasing 5.9% as demand for coffee and snacks pushed sales above expectations, while L'Oréal reported its strongest quarterly sales growth in two years. The FTSE 100 fell for the fourth consecutive day, dropping 0.2% to 10,457.01 in London, while the DAX fell 0.2% to 24,155.45.

Gold headed for a weekly decline, snapping four weeks of gains, trading steadily below $4,700 an ounce, after giving up nearly 3% over the week. Silver fell to 74.80.

Oil rose at the open in Asia, nearing $97 per barrel, with oil swinging between gains and losses as the US and Iran remain locked in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trade carefully!

Friday, April 24, 2026

Data: U.K. Retail Sales, Japan CPI, Germany IFO Business Climate, U.S. University of Michigan

Earnings: P&G

Monday, April 27, 2026

Data: Japan Leading Index