Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Trading Trump`s Whims
Good Morning,
In his adress to the nation, Donald Trump said military operations would be intensified over the next two to three weeks, offering no concrete timeline for ending the war: "We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age where they belong."
Regarding gasoline prices, he said: This short-term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers of neighbouring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict.
If he was looking to raise confidence among traders, he failed: Oil jumped 5%, indexes gave up hard-won ground again, yields and the USD jumped higher, and precious metals lost significantly.
The worrying part is really that Donald Trump gave markets the impression he was looking for a quick resolution of the war, but now is turning on a dime and basically stating the opposite. This degree of uncertainty is extremely challenging to much of the world and has the potential to erode confidence in markets overall.
US 10s are back at 4.38%, the USD Index jumps to above 100, US indexes fall: US 30 down 1.2%, US 500 down 1.4%, and the US Tech 100 down 1.7%. Asian and European indexes fall more, with the Nikkei at -3% and the GER40 at -2.1%. Gold loses 4% and silver 7%.
His irritating statements hit thin markets due to the Easter holiday, making for an unpredictable setup. Through the day, we could see bargain hunting and a strong finish into the long weekend, or worry about further escalation over Easter and a strong risk-off move even from here.
Today's economic agenda is thin; the next big thing is the Nonfarm Payroll and labor data tomorrow. The data will be key for the Fed because of its dual mandate: It is supposed to keep employment high and inflation near 2%. If it wants to cut rates in this inflationary environment, we need pressure on the labor market. The number will hit mostly closed markets.
Trade carefully and manage your risk. Consider options to avoid linear exposure, and remember that swings are much bigger than normal.
Autoinvest will make the next investments on Tuesday, so adjust your accounts today if necessary.
In other news:
- NASA launched four astronauts toward the moon for the first time since 1972.
- The Reserve Bank of India is forbidding banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients.Eli - - Lilly rose 3.8% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the drugmaker's weight-loss pill.
- Intel jumped 8.8% after it said it would buy back its Ireland factory for $14.2 billion.
- The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in March 2026, the strongest since August 2022.
Please find the Easter holiday schedule here and trade safely. The next update from my side is next Wednesday, as I am traveling Tuesday.
Easter – 2026 Holiday Calendar
Thursday, April 2, 2026
US International Trade, Initial Jobles Claims,
Friday, April 3, 2026
China PMI, US Nonfarm Payroll, Good Friday,
Monday April 6 2026
Easter Monday. US ISM
Tuesday April 7 2026
International PMI Trumps Ultimatum expires (maybe)
Outrageous Predictions
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Outrageous Predictions
Senior Relationship Manager
Outrageous Predictions
Chief Investment Strategist
Outrageous Predictions
Saxo Group
Outrageous Predictions
Chief Investment Strategist
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Outrageous Predictions
Investor Content Strategist
Outrageous Predictions
Global Head of Macro Strategy