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Morning Brew April 12 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Rates scare the market
Good Morning,
Tomorrow I will be off and back on Thursday.
Rates continue to rise increasing the pressure on equities and the USD Index rises above 100. Japan's wholesale inflation remained high in March, nevertheless the yen rose to 125.77 yen overnight. EURUSD is trading at 1.0865 and GBPUSD at 1.3015. 1.08 and 1.0630 are key support level in EURUSD. Bitcoin fell below 40k yesterday but could rise to just above the level. The Bund Future fell to below 155 and US 10 year yields are at 2.82.
Gold and Silver are more driven by a flight to safety and as insurance against inflation and are fairly strong at 1956 and 25.15.
German Inflation just came as expected at 7.6% pushing the Dax Future below 14000, key data point will be the US CPI at 14:30.
Currently the ECB is not expected to change rates with a probability of 92% and the implied vol for 1 month atm is at 8.4%.
China is encouraging long-term investors to buy more equities and major shareholders of listed firms to increase their holdings when stocks slump, in a bid to stabilize a stock market rocked by a worsening COVID-19 outbreak (Reuters)
Joe Biden stated that buying more oil from Russia was not in India's interest, The EU executive is drafting an EU oil embargo on Russia, although there was no agreement yet
Wheat is at the high making a gloomy outlook for poorer nations to be able to feed the population.
Earnings:
- Wednesday: Tesco, JPMorgan Chase & Co, BlackRock, Fastenal
- Thursday: China Northern Rare Earth Group, Fast Retailing, Ericsson, UnitedHealth, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, PNC Financial Services, Coinbase, State Street
- Friday: Hangzhou Hikvision Digital
Economic data:
- Tuesday: German CPI , ZEW, US CPI
- Wednesday: US PPI and BoC Rate decision
- Thursday: Sweden CPI, Turkey Rate decision, EU Rate decision and US retail sales
- Friday: French and Italian CPI , NY Fed and Industrial Production
Remain cautious