Market Quick Take – 12 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: calm into cpi; chips in focus; europe mixed; asia constructive
• Volatility: mid-teens vix; short-dated elevated; event-risk setup; spx ±42pts
• Digital assets: btc/eth firm; ibit inflows; etha mixed; hedging into cpi
• Fixed Income: US treasuries hold breath ahead of US CPI release.
• Currencies: USD firms ahead of pivotal US CPI release. USDJPY above 148.00
• Commodities: ETF buyers support gold. Grain markets await key supply and demand report.
• Macro events: US July CPI

Macro headlines

• US President Trump extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days, postponing duty hikes until mid-November. This keeps tariffs at 30% for Chinese goods and 10% for US goods, avoiding a sharp rise to 145% and 125%. The delay aids lower tariff rates on holiday imports like electronics and toys. Trump also urged China to quadruple U.S. soybean purchases, but no deal was confirmed.
• US President Trump said he would consider a deal to allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-back version of Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell chip to China, if Nvidia “takes 30-50% off of it”. This came after a separate recent announcement allowing the company to sell its less-advance H20 chips to China as long as 15% of the revenue was charged as an export duty.
• China urged its firms to avoid using Nvidia’s H20 chips, especially for government-related applications, according to unnamed sources at Bloomberg, with some indications that AMD chips are also in the purview of the request. Chinese media reports have questioned the security of Nvidia-based systems and H20 processors.
• Gold futures traded on New York's Comex and the global benchmark for spot prices in London were little changed, with spreads returning to normal after Trump announced that gold would not be tariffed, countering a great deal of confusion last Friday, which temporarily caused mayhem and threatened to disrupt the triangular flow of gold between New York, London, and Switzerland, the world's top refinery hub.
• As universally expected, Australia’s Reserve Bank cut its policy rate a third time for the cycle overnight by 25 basis points to 3.60% and said that further cuts would depend on incoming data. In response, short Australian rates dipped slightly and the Australian dollar softened to a new three day low near 0.6500 versus the US dollar.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK June ILO Unemployment Rate
0900 – Germany August ZEW Survey Expectations
1230 – US July CPI
1600 – USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
1600 – EIA's Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO)
1800 – US July Federal Budget Balance
During the day: OPEC to publish Monthly Oil Market Report

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Coreweave, Cardinal Health
• Wednesday: Cisco Systems, E.on
• Thursday: Applied Materials, Deere & Company, Hon Hai Precision, Nu Holdings, Adyen, Swiss Re, Ross Stores

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US stocks eased into today’s CPI after last week’s highs. The S&P 500 slipped 0.25% Monday as investors weighed a 90-day extension of the US–China tariff pause against softer breadth. Tech was mixed: Intel firmed on White House headlines, Micron edged up on a better outlook, while Apple cooled after a strong run. Chips stayed in focus with reports of revenue-sharing on select AI sales to China pressuring Nvidia and AMD. Overall tone: calm, with most desks waiting on inflation before adjusting risk.
• Europe: Europe finished mostly lower Monday as traders balanced the extended US–China truce with geopolitics and this week’s data. Defense names lagged in Germany (e.g., Rheinmetall), while health care outperformed with Novartis and AstraZeneca firmer on drug news. ASML was resilient as chip headlines swirled. Futures point to a slightly firmer open ahead of Germany’s ZEW survey and UK labor prints. Flow feels light; positioning is cautious but not defensive.
• UK: The FTSE 100 rebounded 0.37% Monday, helped by banks and staples. HSBC and Barclays inched higher; AstraZeneca added support. Today, a modestly positive open is indicated as investors watch UK jobs data and US CPI later. Corporate news is quiet; dividend and buyback chatter remains a marginal tailwind for large caps.
• Asia: Asia traded mixed to positive as the 90-day US–China tariff extension steadied sentiment. Japan and Australia outperformed on tech strength; mainland China gained on semiconductor optimism, while Hong Kong was little changed. Property names in China bounced on incremental policy support. In single names, local chipmakers rallied on guidance headlines; autos and industrials were steady. Overall risk tone in the region is constructive but headline-sensitive.

Volatility

• Volatility stays contained into the CPI print. VIX closed near the mid-teens, the curve is gently upward-sloping, and short-dated measures (VIX1D/9D) are elevated but orderly—an event-risk setup rather than stress. Positioning suggests investors are hedged for a data surprise but otherwise comfortable with carry.
  SPX expected move for today: ±42 points (~0.66%), based on options pricing.

Digital Assets

• Crypto is firm but vigilant ahead of CPI. Bitcoin and ether are holding gains, while options desks report brisk demand for short-dated downside puts—classic pre-data insurance—alongside constructive longer-dated positioning. ETF signals are mixed: spot bitcoin funds, including IBIT, have seen small net inflows in recent sessions; ether ETFs such as ETHA were choppier last week. Crypto-linked equities (Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Marathon, Riot) mirror the gentle risk-on tone. Net-net: bullish medium term, cautious near term as traders hedge a possible downbeat CPI while keeping the broader uptrend in view.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields are frozen in their tracks ahead of the important US July CPI release today, as many view this as the first data point on inflation that will begin to more clearly show the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs.
• European yields have risen lose to multi-month highs at the front end of the curve, somewhat unlike US counterparts, with the German 2-year Schatz benchmark trading just above 1.96% and posting the highest daily close since April, with an intraday high of 1.98% from late July.

Commodities

• Gold trades firmer ahead of today’s US inflation print, and after Trump – as expected following Friday’s climbdown – said gold would not be tariffed. Already up around 26% this year, investors taking comfort in a prolonged period of rangebound trading instead of a major correction continues to accumulate with gold-backed ETF holding rising to their highest since mid-2023.
• The grain markets look towards a monthly update on supply and demand from the US government for direction, with analysts expecting it will boost its outlook for the domestic harvest. A major grain index recently hit a five-year low amid the prospect of another strong northern hemisphere harvest. On Monday, soybeans briefly jumped after Trump urged China to quadruple US buying but later fell back after he extended the trade truce for another 90 days.

Currencies

• An important day ahead for the US dollar, which strengthened slightly yesterday, on the release of the July CPI figures today, which are expected by many to show whether the Trump administration’s tariffs are impacting inflation data, as this is seen as the first full month to see more of the impacts of the tariffs. USDJPY will likely prove one of the US dollar pairs most sensitive to any impact of this release on US treasury yields.
• The Australian dollar weakened slightly in the wake of the RBA’s decision to cut rates as expected, with AUDUSD as noted above. Despite a slight dip overnight, AUD remains firm in the AUDNZD cross, which is poised near resistance just ahead of 1.1000.

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