Recession
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#SaxoStrats

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#SaxoStrats

With leading economies starting to slow and key indicators in the risk zone, find out whether a global recession is on the horizon and how you can position yourself with Saxo.

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Are the charts pointing to a recession?

Having correctly predicted the last three recessions, a negative shift in US credit impulse is a reliable indication of a market downturn. Despite a recent move into positive territory, it’s still hovering dangerously close to the risk zone. Learn more

How to trade in bear markets

A simple buy-and-hold tactic is fraught with risk during a market downturn. By hedging existing positions, or investing in safe-haven assets, you can offset the risk of falling markets and focus on preserving capital. Find out more

Recession Watch: news and analysis

Stay up to date on the global economic outlook with expert insights from the SaxoStrats, our team of in-house analysts.

An unusual drawdown is the perfect ending to an unusual bull market

The VIX Index and the VIX forward curve are not behaviouring as bad as the current selloff would suggest indicating unusual dynamics in the current drawdown.

Warning signals are flashing out of South Korea

South Korean equities are down 30% from its peak last year and have lost 12.5% during the past three weeks sending warning signals to investors that the world economy is losing pace fast.

Federal Reserve and Bank of England: same struggles, different paths

Althea Spinozzi

The market is not buying the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England's message. While the Federal Reserve is confident to tighten the economy aggressively in the US without causing a recession, the bond market says that a downturn might be inevitable. Despite a dovish monetary policy meeting in the UK, investors remain of the idea that the BOE will not be able to afford its dovish stance and that it will need to hike rates to 2% by the end of the year.

Chart of the Week : The inverted yield curve

Christopher Dembik

In today’s ‘Macro Chartmania’, we focus on the inverted yield curve. It is known as an ominous indicator of the upcoming U.S. recession. But it is sending a false signal now, in our view.

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