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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Recession
Watch

with
#SaxoStrats
with
#SaxoStrats

With leading economies starting to slow and key indicators in the risk zone, find out whether a global recession is on the horizon and how you can position yourself with Saxo.

Are the charts pointing to a recession?

Credit Impulse US Yield Spreads Leading Economic Index

  • Having correctly predicted the last three recessions, a negative shift in US credit impulse is a reliable indication of a market downturn. Despite a recent move into positive territory, it’s still hovering dangerously close to the risk zone. Learn more

    How to trade in bear markets

    Hedging Active trading Asset allocation

    A simple buy-and-hold tactic is fraught with risk during a market downturn. By hedging existing positions, or investing is safe-haven assets, you can offset the risk of falling markets and focus on preserving capital. Find out more

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    Recession Watch: news and analysis

    Stay up to date on the global economic outlook with expert insights from the SaxoStrats, our team of in-house analysts.
      MACRO

      More on the yield curve inversion, recession risk and market path from here

      Steen Jakobsen
      The important US yield curve inversions actually started months ago, not yesterday. Yield curve inversions point to a rising recession risk and the related risk of ugly market outcomes.
      MACRO

      Macro Digest: New lows in US yield indicate rising recession risk

      Steen Jakobsen
      ​​New low in 30yr US yield & 2yr US yield above 30yr indicate significant risk of global recession
      MACRO

      Chart of the Week: The Treasury one-year/10-year spread

      Christopher Dembik
      Research from the Fed had repeatedly demonstrated that the one-year/10-year Treasury yield spread is a more accurate predictor of recession than its more widely watched two-year to 10-year equivalent. And a quick look at the former gives cause for concern.
      MACRO

      NFP report : Another danger signal for the US economy

      Christopher Dembik
      The latest ADP, which rose only 27k, was the first very worrying signal regarding the US labour market this year. The payrolls for May that have just been released tend to confirm that the jobs market is indeed facing negative pressure.

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      Expert analysis

      Stay up to date on the global economic outlook, with expert news, insights and commentary from our team of in-house analysts.

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