Saxo’s Q4 2018 Quarterly Outlook

Discover the trading themes set to shape the markets in the #SaxoStrats’ Q4 2018 Outlook.

Our expert strategists have come together to offer you unrivalled analysis, getting to the heart of economic forecasts, policy horizons, asset prices and more. This publication looks at whether emerging markets (EM) are now submerging; EMs took a hit this year and their assets are trading at a deep discount, but could a shift in growth leadership from the US to China spark a change in fortunes?

Emerging or submerging markets?

This year has seen emerging markets (EM) buffeted by the perfect storm of Federal Reserve tightening, a fearsomely strong dollar, and an escalating trade war between the US and China.

The trend has pushed commodities such as industrial metals lower, while EM countries running current account deficits struggle with debt refinancing and interest rate payments.

In August, investors saw the EM crisis come to a head in Turkey and Argentina, with incredibly volatile results. So where do we go from here?

While the current bout of EM pain may be deep-rooted, low valuations and the potential for a local peak in both the dollar and the US as a whole mean that EM may be down but not out.

The world and its markets have reached a critical crossroads on multiple fronts. From globalisation to geopolitics, as well as economics, we face a collective choice between escalation and turning from the brink.

Download the Quarterly Outlook now and read the SaxoStrats’ views on the macro picture, as well as specific asset classes.


Q4 Outlook: Emerging or submerging markets?

Steen Jakobsen

Chief Economist & CIO


Q4 Outlook: Trump, sanctions, and tariffs

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy


Q4 Outlook: Is China cheap?

Eleanor Creagh

Australian markets strategist, Saxo Bank


Q4 Outlook: China leads the way


Q4 Outlook: Preparing for the slowdown

Althea Spinozzi

Fixed Income Specialist, Saxo Bank


Q4 Outlook: Find a parachute as impact is close

Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy


Q4 Outlook: A strong USD is its own worst enemy

John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy


Q4 Outlook: EM central banks to pay the Fed piper

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist


Q4 Outlook: China opens the credit taps

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis


Saxo's Q3 2018 Quarterly Outlook

Michael McKenna

Head of Editorial Content, Saxo Bank

Download the Quarterly Outlook now to read our #SaxoStrats’ analysis in full, and discover what this quarter holds in store for macro, equities, forex, fixed income, commodities, cryptos and more.