Saxo Group Q4 Outlook
Discover the trading themes set to shape the markets in the #SaxoStrats’ Q4 2018 Outlook.
Saxo Group’s expert strategists have come together to offer you unrivalled analysis, getting to the heart of economic forecasts, policy horizons, asset prices and more.
This publication looks at whether emerging markets (EM) are now submerging; EMs took a hit this year and their assets are trading at a deep discount, but could a shift in growth leadership from the US to China spark a change in fortunes?
Emerging or submerging markets?
This year has seen emerging markets buffeted by the perfect storm of Federal Reserve tightening, a fearsomely strong dollar, and an escalating trade war between the US and China.
The trend has pushed commodities such as industrial metals lower, while EM countries running current account deficits struggle with debt refinancing and interest rate payments.
In August, investors saw the EM crisis come to a head in Turkey and Argentina, with incredibly volatile results. So where do we go from here?
While the current bout of EM pain may be deep-rooted, low valuations and the potential for a local peak in both the dollar and the US as a whole mean that EM may be down but not out.
The world and its markets have reached a critical crossroads on multiple fronts. From globalisation to geopolitics, as well as economics, we face a collective choice between escalation and turning from the brink.
Download the Quarterly Outlook now and read the SaxoStrats’ views on the macro picture, as well as specific asset classes.
Q4 Outlook: EM central banks to pay the Fed piper
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group
Download the Quarterly Outlook now to read our #SaxoStrats’ analysis in full, and discover what this quarter holds in store for macro, equities, forex, fixed income, commodities, cryptos and more.