Q1 Outlook 2019: Beware the global policy panic

Q1 Outlook 2019: Beware the global policy panic

As the world faces up to a sinking economy, could policymakers’ attempts to correct course lead them further into troubled waters?

The great policy scramble

Europe is sliding back into recession, China has pushed back its 2025 plan by a decade and US market tremors have forced the Federal Reserve to make an embarrassing about-face in its first 2019 outing. Welcome to the Grand Finale of what Saxo Group's chief economist Steen Jakobsen terms “the worst monetary experiment in history”.

It is both difficult and dispiriting to tally the costs of the extend-and-pretend regime. The replacement of the business cycle by a mere credit cycle, the inflation of asset prices and the creation of the worst inequality seen in generations have already wrought foreboding economic and political changes. These are the ingredients of the coming panic, which will likely see policymakers scramble wildly to recover some semblance of post-crisis normalcy.

These problems, as well as the problems created by trying to solve them, could bring volatility, turmoil, and wild swings of sentiment to markets this coming year. Whether 2019 marks the start of a new cycle or merely the prelude to an introduction, clear-eyed investors will need to be more active and dynamic than ever before.

Download the Quarterly Outlook now and read the SaxoStrats’ views on the macro picture, as well as specific asset classes.

QUARTERLY OUTLOOK

Q1 Outlook: Beware the global policy panic

Steen Jakobsen

Chief Economist & CIO


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Head of Macro Analysis, Saxo Bank Group


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Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group


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Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy, Saxo Bank Group


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John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy, Saxo Bank Group


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Q1 Outlook: Getting defensive on Australia

Eleanor Creagh

Australian Market Strategist, Saxo Bank Group


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Eleanor Creagh

Australian Market Strategist, Saxo Bank Group


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Jacob Pouncey

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Download Quarterly Outlook now to read our #SaxoStrats’ analysis in full and discover what this quarter holds in store for macro, equities, forex, fixed income, commodities, cryptos and more.

Previous Quarterly Outlooks

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