Q2 2019 Outlook:
Europe – can the centre hold?

Q2 2019 Outlook:
Europe – can the centre hold?

Having thrived off the peace dividend, the gap between Europe and its international counterparts is widening. Can the EU reverse its fortunes?

Europe was the big winner of the post-Berlin Wall move towards globalisation and multilateralism. As these themes recede, replaced by stubbornly low growth and renewed nationalism, it could become the big loser. 

European valuations continue to lag their US counterparts, German recession looms large on the horizon and we expect the perennial “basket case” narrative to grow stronger in the coming months.

But what if this is the darkness before the dawn?

Real macro changes only occur following breakdowns and crises. Solutions, however, could be found in the newly combative EU institutions that will near-certainly follow the May Parliamentary elections. After a decade of zero or negative interest rates, the policy response must come sooner rather than later.

Europe has many strengths that investors too readily overlook. It is perfectly positioned to benefit from automation, AI, digitalisation and a capital market that is cheap by any standards, and it retains the best average educational system in the world.

Download Saxo Group’s Quarterly Outlook now to get the SaxoStrats' views on where Europe might go from here.

Q2 Outlook: Can the centre hold?

Steen Jakobsen

Chief Economist & CIO


Q2 Outlook: A reality check for the euro area

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis, Saxo Bank Group


Q2 Outlook: Debt-financed spending versus rising populism

Eleanor Creagh

Australian Market Strategist, Saxo Bank Group


Q2 Outlook: The great divergence

Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy, Saxo Bank Group


Q2 Outlook: You can't fight gravity

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group


Q2 Outlook: Europe has the most to lose and most to gain

John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy, Saxo Bank Group


Q2 Outlook: Commodities power ahead

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank Group



Q1 Outlook: Equities enter their final act

Peter Garnry

Head of Equity Strategy, Saxo Bank Group


Q1 Outlook: Bonds shine in baby bear market

Althea Spinozzi

Fixed Income Specialist, Saxo Bank Group


Download Quarterly Outlook now to read our #SaxoStrats’ analysis in full and discover what this quarter holds in store for macro, equities, forex, fixed income, commodities, cryptos and more.

Previous Quarterly Outlooks

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