Spot price at time of writing (ADR, USD): around USD 58.7

What the market is pricing

Into the 6 February expiry, options are pricing an expected move of roughly ±6.8%, implying a post-earnings range of approximately USD 55 to USD 63 around the current spot price. Implied volatility in the earnings-week options is materially higher than in March, signalling a clear earnings volatility premium that is likely to reset once results are released.

Positioning to watch

Open interest is concentrated at the USD 65 call on the upside and the USD 54 put on the downside. These strikes mark where positioning is heaviest and are likely to act as reference levels in the sessions following earnings.

Market scenarios and theoretical setups

• Upside path: Market pricing suggests that an upside surprise would be reflected by price moving beyond the upper bound of the implied range. If price holds above USD 63 rather than slipping back inside the range, traders often interpret that behaviour as a sign that follow-through may be possible.
• Downside path: Market pricing suggests that a downside surprise would be reflected by price moving below the lower bound of the implied range. If weakness persists below USD 55, continuation-style price action can dominate; if price stabilises near the USD 54 area and re-enters the range, mean-reversion dynamics can become more relevant.
• Neutral / range path: A neutral outcome is often characterised by price opening and remaining inside the USD 55–USD 63 implied range. In that case, realised volatility may undershoot what earnings-week options priced, and price can rotate between nearby high open-interest strikes as positioning is adjusted.

Illustrative strategy structures

• Shares (conceptual framing): In directional trading frameworks, the implied range is often used as a reference frame for invalidation and confirmation rather than as a price target.
• Options (expected-move anchored, defined risk):
  • Upside resolution (above ~USD 63): A hypothetical bullish structure is a call vertical spread in the 6 February expiry. The long call is commonly placed near spot (or slightly in-the-money), while the short call is placed near the upper bound of the expected move (for example, near ~USD 65 where call open interest is notable). Standard practice for this structure often involves evaluating gains relative to maximum value (e.g., capturing a meaningful portion of the maximum) and reassessing if price falls back below the upper bound.
  • Downside resolution (below ~USD 55): A hypothetical bearish structure is a put vertical spread in the 6 February expiry. The long put is commonly placed near spot, while the short put is placed near the lower bound of the expected move (for example, near ~USD 54 where put open interest is notable). Management discussions often reference continuation versus re-entry into the implied range as a key differentiator.
  • Neutral / range (inside ~USD 55–USD 63): A common defined-risk range structure is a defined-risk iron condor in the 6 February expiry. The short call is placed just above the upper bound and the short put just below the lower bound, with long wings further out to cap risk. In practice, post-earnings volatility compression is often monitored as the primary driver of premium decay, while proximity to short strikes becomes the principal risk.

Alphabet

(reports 4 February, after US market close)

Spot price at time of writing: around USD 339

What the market is pricing

Options imply a move of roughly ±5.3%, corresponding to a post-earnings range of about USD 321 to USD 356 around the current price. Earnings-week implied volatility sits well above March levels, reflecting sensitivity to advertising trends, cloud performance, and forward-looking investment commentary. This sets the stage for volatility compression if results do not materially surprise.

Positioning to watch

The largest call open interest is clustered at USD 360, while heavy put open interest sits around USD 325. These strikes frame the most important post-earnings decision levels.

Market scenarios and theoretical setups

• Upside path: Market pricing suggests that a larger upside reaction would require movement beyond the upper bound of the implied range. A sustained move above USD 356 can sometimes coincide with trend continuation, particularly if the initial post-event move holds rather than fading back into the range.
• Downside path: Market pricing suggests that a larger downside reaction would require movement below the lower bound of the implied range. If price extends below USD 321, momentum can persist; if selling pressure stalls and price moves back into the range, rebound and mean-reversion narratives often become more relevant.
• Neutral / range path: A neutral outcome is often characterised by price opening and remaining within the USD 321–USD 356 implied range. When price remains trapped between the USD 325 put and USD 360 call open-interest clusters, directional momentum can fade and post-earnings volatility compression can become the dominant driver.

Illustrative strategy structures

• Shares (conceptual framing): Many traders evaluate whether the gap holds or fades after the initial trading period, using the implied range as context.
• Options (expected-move anchored, defined risk):
  • Upside resolution (above ~USD 356): A hypothetical bullish structure is a call vertical spread in the 6 February expiry. The long call is commonly placed near spot, while the short call is placed near the upper bound of the expected move (for example, near ~USD 360 where call open interest is concentrated). Discussions of management often reference whether price remains above the upper bound.
  • Downside resolution (below ~USD 321): A hypothetical bearish structure is a put vertical spread in the 6 February expiry. The long put is commonly placed near spot, while the short put is placed near the lower bound of the expected move (for example, near ~USD 325 where put open interest is clustered). Re-entry into the implied range is often treated as a key behaviour change.
  • Neutral / range (inside ~USD 321–USD 356): A common defined-risk range structure is a defined-risk iron condor in the 6 February expiry. The short call is placed just above the upper bound and the short put just below the lower bound, with long wings further out to cap risk. Standard discussion points often include the pace of premium decay after earnings and the risk of price trending toward a short strike.

Amazon

(reports 5 February, after the US close)

Spot price at time of writing: around USD 243

What the market is pricing

For the 6 February expiry, the options market is pricing a move of about ±6.4%, implying a range of roughly USD 226 to USD 257 around spot. The earnings volatility premium is the steepest of the three names, highlighting how sensitive Amazon is to post-earnings repricing and how quickly implied volatility can reset after the report.

Positioning to watch

Open interest is concentrated at the USD 250 call on the upside and the USD 230 put on the downside, making these key reference levels for post-earnings price action.

Market scenarios and theoretical setups

• Upside path: Market pricing suggests that a larger upside reaction would require movement beyond the upper bound of the implied range. If price holds above USD 257 into the next session rather than slipping back into the range, traders often interpret that as supportive of continuation.
• Downside path: Market pricing suggests that a larger downside reaction would require movement below the lower bound of the implied range. Weakness toward the low-USD 230s, combined with an inability to re-enter the implied range, can coincide with continuation; a quick re-entry can coincide with snap-back price action.
• Neutral / range path: A neutral outcome is often characterised by price opening and remaining inside the USD 226–USD 257 implied range. If price oscillates between the USD 230 put and USD 250 call strikes, trading conditions can become more range-bound as implied volatility deflates after the report.

Illustrative strategy structures

• Shares (conceptual framing): Many traders frame the first session as a “gap holds” versus “gap fails” environment, using the implied range for context.
• Options (expected-move anchored, defined risk):
  • Upside resolution (above ~USD 257): A hypothetical bullish structure is a call vertical spread in the 6 February expiry. The long call is commonly placed near spot, while the short call is placed near the upper bound of the expected move (for example, near ~USD 260 depending on available strikes and liquidity). Behaviour-based discussion typically focuses on whether price remains above the upper bound.
  • Downside resolution (below ~USD 226): A hypothetical bearish structure is a put vertical spread in the 6 February expiry. The long put is commonly placed near spot, while the short put is placed near the lower bound of the expected move (for example, near ~USD 225 depending on available strikes and liquidity). Re-entry into the implied range is commonly discussed as a change in the post-event profile.
  • Neutral / range (inside ~USD 226–USD 257): A common defined-risk range structure is a defined-risk iron condor in the 6 February expiry. The short call is placed just above the upper bound and the short put just below the lower bound, with long wings further out to cap risk. In practice, volatility compression is often the primary return driver if price remains contained.

A final checklist for earnings traders

• The expected-move range is often treated as the primary reference frame for interpreting whether the post-earnings move was large or small.
• Large open-interest strikes frequently serve as short-term reference points during post-event repositioning.
• Earnings gaps are a practical constraint in both share and options positioning, which is why defined-risk structures are often emphasised.
• Early post-open price behaviour (hold versus fade) is commonly used as an input for directional versus mean-reversion narratives.
• Scenario planning often includes upside, downside and neutral outcomes to avoid anchoring on a single path.

Used this way, earnings become less about prediction and more about preparation, turning a single data point into a structured way to think about risk and positioning.

Conclusion

Taken together, these three earnings events highlight the same underlying point: market pricing already embeds an expected range, and the post-release question is whether price resolves beyond it or remains contained. Using the implied move, open-interest reference strikes, and defined-risk option structures as a common language can help keep scenario planning consistent across very different companies, while maintaining clear boundaries around risk if the market gaps.