Asia Market Quick Take – 12 March, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 12 March, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: IEA to authorise a historic, co-ordinated 400m-barrel release
• Equities: AI stocks rose, led by Oracle’s 8% jump on upbeat guidance
• FX: AUDUSD hit 0.7186, its highest since June 2022
• Commodities: Brent up 7.9%, near $100 on second day of gains
• Fixed income: 10Y yields up for the 7th time in 8, at a one‑month high

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• After the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq led Gulf output cuts, followed by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, prompting the IEA to authorise a co-ordinated release of 400 million barrels — a historic drawdown exceeding that after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• US CPI for February showed headline inflation rising 0.267% MoM, meeting consensus expectations. Annual inflation held steady at 2.4%. Core inflation grew 0.216% MoM, cooler than before, with its annual rate steady at 2.5%. Analysts warn of inflation risks due to Middle East conflict and rising oil prices. The report is unlikely to shift the Fed's stance, as they assess long-term impacts.
• In February 2026, the US reported a $307.5 billion budget deficit, slightly up from $296.3 billion a year earlier. Receipts fell 43.9% to $313.3 billion due to decreased taxes and duties post-seasonal peaks. Outlays dropped to $620.8 billion, affected by early benefit payments.
• JPMorgan Chase is reducing lending to private credit funds after marking down certain software-related loans in their portfolios amid investor concerns about AI’s impact on these businesses. The write-down is affecting the collateral funds use for borrowing, limiting JPMorgan's lending capacity to these groups.

Equities: 

• US - US stock futures fell sharply on Thursday morning due to rising oil prices, driven by the prospect of a prolonged conflict in Iran. WTI crude surpassed $90 a barrel, overshadowing a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves by major economies, including 172 million barrels from the US, which will take about 120 days to deliver. On Wednesday, the Dow and S&P 500 lost 0.61% and 0.08%, respectively, while the Nasdaq gained 0.08%. Most sectors closed lower, except for energy, technology, and communication services. However, clean energy funds reached record highs as investors looked for alternatives amid the volatile fossil fuel market. Asset managers such as Blackrock, Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR declined by over 2% due to concerns in the private credit sector. Meanwhile, AI companies saw gains, driven by Oracle's 8% surge following a positive guidance beat.
• EU - European stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, erasing previous session gains as rising energy prices fueled inflation worries. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 dropped 1% to 5,778, and the STOXX 600 fell 0.8% to 601. Renewed conflict in Iran raised concerns over prolonged disruptions to Persian Gulf energy exports, driving oil and gas prices higher in Europe. Banks like Santander, UniCredit, and Deutsche Bank fell over 1.5%, reflecting concerns over increased credit costs. Tech stocks SAP and Prosus dropped 2.5% and 1.6%, respectively, while Rheinmetall plunged 8% due to weaker-than-expected orders.
• Asia - Asian markets showed mixed but generally positive performance as oil prices cooled, alleviating inflation concerns despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose up to 2%, driven by optimism in energy-import-dependent economies. While the Hang Seng fell 0.2% due to declines in key stocks like HSBC, other indices like Topix and Kospi gained 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively. Nintendo shares rallied, while banks faced pressure due to markdowns in private credit assets. Straits Times Index saw a modest increase, while China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.2%, benefiting from its isolation from Middle East turmoil. Chip giants including TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix contributed significantly to the rally, buoyed by Oracle's strong earnings.