Outrageous Predictions
Carry trade unwind brings USD/JPY to 100 and Japan’s next asset bubble
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: Stocks often make big moves without big news. This article shows how options positioning and hedging flows can increasingly set the short-term price action, and which simple options indicators (implied volatility, put/call balance, key expiry dates) can help investors tell signal from noise, even if they never trade an option.
Many investors recognise this pattern: you open your portfolio in the morning and find a solid, well-known company down 4% on a day with no obvious headlines. Earnings are months away, analysts have not changed their forecasts, and the macro backdrop looks unchanged.
Yet the price action is violent.
One reason is that the “centre of gravity” for risk-taking has shifted. While long-term ownership still happens in the cash equity market, a growing share of short-term views, hedges and speculation now takes place in options. The knock-on hedging flows from these options trades can move the underlying shares, sometimes aggressively.
In other words, in the short term stocks increasingly behave like derivatives of the options market, rather than the other way around.
Over the past decade, two structural changes have reshaped market plumbing:
As a result, the marginal price setter has migrated. If a large institution wants to hedge a portfolio, or a tactical trader wants to express a view on a stock into earnings, they may prefer options for their leverage and flexibility. Market makers and dealers then hedge the risk from those options trades by buying or selling the underlying shares or futures.
That hedging activity shows up as real buying or selling in the equity market, even though the original “decision” was made in the options market. The tail starts to wag the dog.
Regulators and central banks have begun to notice this too, particularly around episodes of stressed volatility, because concentrated options positioning can amplify market moves.
Options traders often talk about “Greeks” such as delta, gamma and vega. These are risk measures that describe how option prices, and the hedges behind them, react when the market moves, time passes or volatility changes.
You do not need to be fluent in all those details to understand the basic mechanics.
Most options trading involves three types of players:
When an investor buys a large number of call options on a stock or index, a dealer is typically on the other side. The dealer does not want to be exposed if the price rises sharply, so they often buy some of the underlying to hedge. If the price rises further, their models may tell them to buy more to stay hedged.
The reverse happens when there is heavy demand for put options: dealers may need to sell the underlying to hedge downside exposure.
This hedging can:
Real-world examples show how broad this effect has become:
From the outside, it can look as if the market is behaving erratically for no reason. Under the surface, it is often the predictable outcome of a complex options book being rebalanced.
Note: the infographic includes trader shorthand (such as “0DTE” and “gamma”). Those terms are widely used by options traders to describe very short-dated options and hedging sensitivity, but you do not need to master that jargon to use the higher-level indicators discussed in this article.
For investors with a multi-year horizon, the key message is reassurance with context.
This has two implications:
You can gain this context without ever trading an option by treating a few simple measures as a market weather map:
For more active investors, options data can become a core part of the daily preparation routine, even if they only trade cash equities or ETFs.
Practical uses include:
Sideways trading around those levels, as hedging flows pin prices, or Fast moves if a catalyst knocks the market away from those “gravity points.”
Position size, stop-loss levels and patience can all be adjusted with this in mind.
Again, the point is not to turn every investor into an options strategist. It is to accept that in an options-centric market, price action often reflects positioning dynamics as much as it reflects information.
The equity market is still, at its core, a market of businesses and cash flows. But the way those businesses are priced from minute to minute has changed. The modern market is one where stocks frequently trade as derivatives of the options market in the short term.
For both buy & hold and active investors, the practical takeaway is simple: you do not have to trade options, but ignoring options data means ignoring a major driver of price.
Starting with a basic options dashboard – implied volatility, put/call balances and awareness of key expiry dates – can already make mysterious moves more understandable, and help you navigate a market where the “tail” increasingly shapes the dog’s path.
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