Outrageous Predictions
Die Grüne Revolution der Schweiz: 30 Milliarden Franken-Initiative bis 2050
Katrin Wagner
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Summary: Today, as the headline US equity indices finally paused for breath after their recent steep run-up, a run-down of incoming earnings today and tomorrow and single stock stories of note. Also, a reminder that the next 24 hours or so are critical for the degree to which headline risk is set to pick up from the Middle East as the US and Iran are meant to meet in Islamabad. Also, a look at macro and FX moves and what to look for in the Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Is the SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) meltdown overdone? The latest evidence of US urgency to rebuild its supply chains and infrastructure. FT with startling demographic projections on China (and other countries) What is the future of work if AI displaces so many current jobs? EU regulators trying to disrupt the doom-scrolling algorithms If you don’t like Palantir CEO Alex Karp, you will very much like this I don’t follow steel companies very closely, but worth noting that one of the top US steel companies, Steel Dynamics, reached a new all-time high yesterday. It is a more than ten-bagger from the 2020 pandemic lows. The company reported earnings yesterday after the close. (The shares are up another 1% or so after reporting, sorry for missing that detail on the podcast - the strong session yesterday was due in part to the strong results of steel industry rival Cleveland Cliffs). Steel Dynamics also has a growing and considerable aluminum recycling business. Nucor is somewhat larger US steel producer than Steel Dynamics and also rushed to a new all-time high yesterday. Note the link above on the Presidential Determination on US grid infrastructure: one wonders if the general underinvestment in US infrastructure, the current move to fast-track US re-industrialization and grid infrastructure, as well as the focus on sourcing efforts to address the problem within the United States might result in rising demand for steel from here for years to come?
It is, according to Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research, a guest on the Monetary Matters podcast, arguing that there are key moats in place that will prevent the profound disruption the market is anticipating. This could be very interesting for relative valuations even in a sideways to slightly negative overall market if the market has been too quick to throw the SaaS babies out with the bath water.
Craig Tindale weighs in with some comments on a new Presidential Determination announcement from the White House, the latest sign of the urgency of US policy awareness that national defense is everywhere in the foundations of the economy, like in grid infrastructure, where it must up its game to compete with China and build out AI.
Asking the great question: Will China get richer before it gets much, much smaller?
The Ghosts of Electricity substack has some very interesting answers, using a an anecdote of Starbucks reversing its own automation initiatives because they was bad for business as a starting point. In short, it’s about relationships as AI can replace our productivity, but not our humanity. The post also links toa widely linked longer form paper on the same subject.
A Bloomberg columnist covers the EU commission’s Digital Fairness Act, which could have profound implications for some “social” media business models.
A tour de force vivisection of what the author Hamilton Nolan calls “the closest thing we have to Dr. Evil.”Chart of the Day - Steel Dynamics (STLD)