Summary: Today we look at the S&P 500 index hitting a record high, while breadth is lacking and the Nasdaq 100 is still below its cycle highs. In single names, we wonder whether Nvidia is struggling to find direction on the enormous options expiry today and together with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo we preview earnings reports from three interesting tech companies next week, including hard-charging Broadcom. Some thoughts on gold, FX and more on the call. Hosting today's pod was Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Slide deck for today’s podcast, including some charts, the week ahead in earnings and macro, and some thoughts from Ruben on what to watch for in the three interesting tech and software names set to report next week. This just in: New Chinese AI chip on the way? Germany - can it dig itself out of its hole? I am currently listening to audiobook of… Would France rather flip the table than play the austerity game? Need to do more digging, but there is a lot of insider selling in places… Gold is stirring, what are the next drivers for a leg higher? Gold has been coiling and coiling within the range for months since posting its spike high in the wake of Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements in April. Since June we have had a series of lower highs and higher lows as the range has constricted. Yesterday we finally broke that sequence, but the significance is questionable until or unless we get a new record daily close, perhaps, north of the thrice tested high April close around 3,425-30.
and probably why US futures (including Nvidia in pre-hours trading) are down hours ahead of the open, Alibaba has reportedly developed a new AI chip that will be produced by a Chinese company rather than TSMC, a further sign that China wants to pursue AI tech that is not reliant on Western knowhow or even Taiwanese manufacturing.
Kaput: The End of the German Miracle, a book written by the great Wolfgang Münchau, who details the structural issues that have brought Germany great success at times, but are now leaving it badly out of synch with the rest of the world. A must read, or you can check out this interview I haven’t seen on YouTube as it makes you realize what must be overcome for Germany to get something productive out of its new fiscal expansion.
As promised on the podcast, a LinkedIn post suggesting that French voters simply won’t do austerity like the periphery did after the Eurozone debt crisis post 2010-12, and that France is more likely to “embrace collapse before submission”. Beware if you are a holder of French debt!
Finally, from the who-to-believe department, we have one person claiming that all big insider transactions are sells, while another saying that he is wrong, although Palantir insiders do appear to be smartly cashing out.
Saxo’s Ole Hansen on the steepening US yield curve and what it means for gold.Chart of the Day - Is gold stirring?
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