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Europe on edge as the bad penny of French politics turns up again.
Podcast 15 minutes to read
Summary: Today, a look at markets unwinding much of the reaction to the Powell's Jackson Hole speech, the bad vibes in Europe this morning as French politics are set for another showdown into a September 8 confidence vote, Trump's trying to fire the Fed's Lisa Cook and whether he can succeed, AI-related names that are nervous ahead of Nvidia's big earnings report tomorrow after the close, crypto markets on edge and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s links
My FX Update from earlier today, largely discussing the risk to the euro if the France fails to get ahead of market
My esteemed former colleague Peter Garnry maintains a substack with some wise words for equity investors, including his latest, which warns that Quality traps are as dangerous as value traps. Highly recommended and hopefully we’ll have Peter on the podcast at some point soon as a guest.
Again, if you aren’t already, consider following Michael Every’s daily updates on X as a must for keeping tabs on geopolitics and the new age of national capitalism, or as he calls it, Grand Macro Strategy.
I am reposting this recent post from Martin Robbins on The Value of Nothing substack that I passed along some days ago because I had a chance to read the full thing - compelling prose and not least, humor as he pokes into the intersection of AI and the alt-right, the degree to which AI is even a gamechanger and much more, including important side links.
Chart of the Day - EURUSD
A bit surprised that the euro hasn’t been more consistently offered today on the fresh stress showing up in France-Germany yield spreads (10-year spread at 77 basis points this morning, up 7 basis points in two days - this versus the cycle high late last year near 88 basis points) as this feels like a new twist in the plot relative to the extreme quiet of late that could have euro longs second-guessing their confidence. The single currency has been broadly bid up in recent months (with the notable exception of EURCHF) in part on anticipation of a German fiscal revival. Watching the recent 1.1583 low for whether we open up for a run on the prior range low just below 1.1400 and even beyond after we so quickly reversed out the Jackson Hole reaction.
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