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AI picks & shovels versus AI miners. Also: "Gimme a stimmie!"
Podcast 21 minutes to read
Summary: Today we look at another fascinating session full of divergences, particularly the clearly emerging pattern of AI "picks and shovels" sellers (hardware makers, particularly in chips) performing well versus the biggest spenders on "miners" or those investing in AI data center capacity. Meanwhile, will there be any power to drive further growth? A rundown of the massive comeback in gold, energy and more with with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, notably connecting Trump's turn left and fresh talk of "stimmies" or stimulus checks and the implications. Macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today’s Links
John’s The FX Trader from earlier today on all things G10 FX, today asking if AUD getting overbaked, among many subplots.
Ole’s latest crude oil market update - careful now, it is thoughtful and deeply researched.
FT catching up with the narrative on data center capacity possibly limiting further AI buildout rates, even if capex demands continued to skyrocket. Then again, JP Morgan is out with a big report talking up the great buildout of AI infrastructure, a capex event that will be “sustained and extraordinary”.
EndgameMacro weighs in on an interesting way to view crypto and why the US government tolerates and even co-opts it: - as a liquidity shock absorber that dampens the impact into other markets without really hitting the economy.
Oh, those Russians. An elite Russian unit is making life tougher for Ukrainian drone operators and their more limited resources. The arms and technology race in the war there is horrible and fascinating to follow.
Nuclear rockets? I did not know this was a thing… Actually an old idea - but may have to stay unmanned if ever developed.
Chart of the Day - Viking Therapeutics
In the September 3 edition of this substack, we called out Viking Therapeutics (below) as the chart of the day, a company with an obesity drug candidate, assuming it can bring it to market next year. The trigger for highlighting the company was mention that Druckenmiller’s family office had a large holding. Since that post (and news item), the company’s share price is up some 50%, yesterday testing above the prior 2025 high. Some of the recent upside may be on general strength in healthcare- and pharma-related names, as there is quite a rotation going on. Who knows, maybe there is further upside potential if a large drug company considers it imperative to have a GLP-1 drug, just like Pfizer snapped up Metsera at a huge premium to have a drug in the obesity market. But the risk may be that GLP-1 is a competitive space, especially once they all have pill versions of their drug, assuming none of them has a significant edge in effectiveness. The Novo Nordisk - Eli Lilly relative performance looks extreme, given that Wegovy is not that inferior to Eli Lilly’s drug, etc.
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