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Morning Brew November 3 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Best equity week of the year ahead? Only if the Nonfarm delivers
Good Morning
This Sunday the US also change back from daylight savings time so starting Sunday the time difference is 6 hours again, Equities open at 14:30 CET and FX Options expire at 16:00 again.
Equities are heading for one of the best weeks of the year as the dovish interpretation of the Feds path caused risk sentiment to soar. This seems to confirm the old sell in May and go away but remember to return in Novemnber proverb. US Indexes gained around 2% yesterday on large volumes, nearly 12 billion shares were traded in US Exchanges. At the moment, the US 500 is at 4315, the US Tech 100 att 14880 and the GER40 at 15222, heading into resistance at 15280.
Starbucks added 9.5%, Tesla gained 6.25%, Paypal 6.6% Qualcomm 5.8% while Moderna lost 6.5%. Apple beat expectations but set out a weak sales forecast for the holiday season with lower demand for iPads and wearables. Shares lost about 3% in after-hours trading. Novo Nordisk delivered blow out earnings Yesterday, out Kim took a look at the technicals
Sam Bankman Fried was convicted of Fraud and the sentance will follow.
US Yields fell to below at 4.66 and the 2 Year rose and the Dollar Index to 106. EURUSD is testing the 1.0635 resistance while GBPUSD is 1.22 and USDJPY 150.30.
Gold and Silver take a breather as risk sentiment gets a boost. Currently we are trading at 1985 and 22.68. On the flipside, Oil gains 2.7%.
The UAE stated that the tension in the Middle East was nearing boiling point as Israel has surrounded Gaza City.
Today we are expecting the German Trade data at 8, UK PMI at 10:30 EU Unemployment at 11 and as highlight of the day the Non-Farm Payroll at 13:30 – along with the unemployment rate and the average earnings. The Non-Farm Payroll is expected at 180k, due to the strikes by the UAW.
There are several Fed-Speakers appearing today as the Blackout period is over.
Friday
- Data EU Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings Enbridge, RBI,