Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Best equity week of the year ahead? Only if the Nonfarm delivers
Good Morning
This Sunday the US also change back from daylight savings time so starting Sunday the time difference is 6 hours again, Equities open at 14:30 CET and FX Options expire at 16:00 again.
Equities are heading for one of the best weeks of the year as the dovish interpretation of the Feds path caused risk sentiment to soar. This seems to confirm the old sell in May and go away but remember to return in Novemnber proverb. US Indexes gained around 2% yesterday on large volumes, nearly 12 billion shares were traded in US Exchanges. At the moment, the US 500 is at 4315, the US Tech 100 att 14880 and the GER40 at 15222, heading into resistance at 15280.
Starbucks added 9.5%, Tesla gained 6.25%, Paypal 6.6% Qualcomm 5.8% while Moderna lost 6.5%. Apple beat expectations but set out a weak sales forecast for the holiday season with lower demand for iPads and wearables. Shares lost about 3% in after-hours trading. Novo Nordisk delivered blow out earnings Yesterday, out Kim took a look at the technicals
Sam Bankman Fried was convicted of Fraud and the sentance will follow.
US Yields fell to below at 4.66 and the 2 Year rose and the Dollar Index to 106. EURUSD is testing the 1.0635 resistance while GBPUSD is 1.22 and USDJPY 150.30.
Gold and Silver take a breather as risk sentiment gets a boost. Currently we are trading at 1985 and 22.68. On the flipside, Oil gains 2.7%.
The UAE stated that the tension in the Middle East was nearing boiling point as Israel has surrounded Gaza City.
Today we are expecting the German Trade data at 8, UK PMI at 10:30 EU Unemployment at 11 and as highlight of the day the Non-Farm Payroll at 13:30 – along with the unemployment rate and the average earnings. The Non-Farm Payroll is expected at 180k, due to the strikes by the UAW.
There are several Fed-Speakers appearing today as the Blackout period is over.
Friday
- Data EU Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings Enbridge, RBI,
The end of the road
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia makes waves on the international stage, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman manages to create a World Champions League, after buying the UEFA Champion League franchise.
As the world embraces GLP-1 obesity wonder drugs, the people next in line to get a prescription stop caring about dieting and exercising, figuring that the drug will later solve all of their weight-related health problems.
With the US budget deficit spiraling above 10% of the GDP, the government is desperate to foster demand for US Treasuries. Under intense pressure from the White House, Congress makes income from government bonds tax-free.
After a criminal group deploys the most deceptive AI deepfake ever seen, generative AI becomes a national security threat. With public distrust soaring, governments crack down with harsh new laws, puncturing the AI hype.
To fix the divergence in the global trade and financial system, the largest deficit countries unite to negotiate new world trade terms. For surplus countries, the reset of the global economic model is a painful adjustment.
As discontent with Biden and Trump rises to fever pitch, Robert F. Kennedy Jr sees his support rising inexorably in the polls. On November 5, Kennedy wins the US presidential election, ushering in a new era in US politics.
Stepping up Japan's economic transformation in 2024, PM Kishida brings in a host of populist policies to boost domestic demand. As the GDP growth rate hits 7%, the BoJ is forced to abandons its yield curve control policy.
As people wake up to how little tax Europe’s billionaires are actually paying, the EU Commission implements a wealth tax of 2%. The tax sends shockwaves through Europe's luxury industry, with luxury giant LVMH plunging 40%.