Morning Brew November 18 2025

Good Morning,

The expectation of a December rate cut has fallen below 50%, weighing on market sentiment. This morning, interest rate futures indicate a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. On Friday, the S&P 500 was down 0.05%, the Nasdaq gained 0.13%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.65%. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, the Dow added 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.5%.

Reports that Strategy, formerly Microstrategy, sold parts of their Bitcoin holdings have further weighed on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is down 18% over the past three months and 8% in the last week. Gold and silver prices declined significantly on Friday but remain positive for the week, with gold at $4067 and silver at $50.76.

On the geopolitical and trade front, the United States and Switzerland, together with Liechtenstein, announced a trade agreement framework that significantly lowers U.S. tariffs on Swiss imports from 39% to 15%. Swiss companies commit to investing $200 billion in the U.S. by 2028, with at least $67 billion planned for 2026 in sectors including pharmaceuticals, medical devices, aerospace, and gold manufacturing. The Swiss franc (CHF) experienced some profit-taking, with USD/CHF trading at 0.7940 and EUR/CHF at 0.9220.

Japan’s GDP shrank 0.4% in Q3 2025, reversing a 0.6% increase in Q2 but slightly better than the expected 0.6% decline.

After a quiet period of nearly two months without clear U.S. economic data, concerns are rising among traders and economists. Employment data and layoffs are painting a potentially bleak economic picture. Inflation remains uncertain, with hawkish tones from Federal Reserve speakers but significant data expected in the coming weeks.

Wednesday’s earnings release from Nvidia will be a focal point, as AI-related stocks now comprise nearly 30% of the S&P 500 . There are growing fears of a bubble and potential burst, so the results will be closely watched to assess whether Nvidia's earnings justify its valuation, particularly regarding the sustainability of its AI business. Reports indicate that Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro LLC has sold all of its Nvidia shares and part of its Tesla holdings to focus on Microsoft and Apple , adding to market interest in Nvidia this week.

In politics, the focus remains on the Epstein files, with new documents released last week. Former President Trump urged fellow Republicans in Congress to vote for the release of these files.

Key market questions are: Will AI stocks hold or contract after Nvidia’s earnings? Can Bitcoin recover to $100,000? Will December's economic data allow the Fed to cut interest rates? What will drive market sentiment into year-end: fiscal concerns, inflation, labor market conditions, or geopolitical risks?

Many important U.S. economic data releases remain delayed or unscheduled, requiring ongoing updates to the trading agenda.

Monday November 17

Japan GDP, Canada CPI,

Speaker: William, Jefferson, Waller

Tuesday November 18
US housing market index for November,

Home Depot, Baidu, Klarna,

Speaker: Barr

Wednesday November 19

UK CPI, EU HICP

Target, Wix, Lowe`s, Nvidia, Paloalto,

Thursday November 20

China Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless claims, EU Consumer Confidence

Walmart,

Speaker Hammack, Cook, Golsbee, Paulsopn.

Friday November 21

Japan CPI, UK Reetail Sales. International PMI.

Speakers: Bar, Jefferson, Logan