Morning Brew March 24 2026

Good Morning

We saw the somewhat expected TACO move yesterday, but as John pointed out, it takes two to TACO, and a war does not necessarily end when one side wants it to. Iran continued its attacks in the region overnight and formally denied any negotiations had taken place.

Given the market reaction—a sharp risk-off move and then an almost full recovery—hope seems to be that Iran is trying to save face before letting the mood calm.

After the announcement by Donald Trump yesterday, risk sentiment saw an impressive recovery with particularly notable swings in oil, precious metals, yields, and equities.

The day-to-day percentage changes were less impressive, but looking at the intraday shifts, the moves were massive—silver rose more than 10% off the lows, and the GER40 jumped more than 7%.

Travel stocks and banks were the main gainers, with Goldman Sachs up 2.2%. United Airlines and American Airlines rose approximately 4%, and cruise lines gained more than 5%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 631.00 points in the end, or 1.4%, to 46,208.47. The S&P 500 gained 75 points, or 1.15%, to 6,581.00, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 300 points, or 1.4%.

The probability of rate hikes fell substantially; the SNB and the RBA are no longer expected to hike at the next session. US 10-year yields fell to 4.36 from 4.45, UK yields dropped from 5.13 to 4.91, and the EU is at 3%.

The USD Index is trading at 99.24 this morning, with EURUSD at 1.16, USDJPY at 158.50, and cable at 1.3420. Gold delivered a spectacular chart yesterday if you take a look at the daily chart in combination with the 200-day moving average.

Gold is at 4,410 and silver at 69.50 today. Bitcoin rose to 70,700. Oil in the UK Line is 102.80 and in the US, 90.60.

Where we go from here depends to a large extent on the goodwill of Trump's thumbs, so remain extremely careful and manage your risks—especially in speculative positions. The moves we are seeing are spectacular. Consider using options to avoid significant risks.

It is also very important to remember that the straight of Hormuz has been blocked for aa while now and there may be implications we only find out as we go along. Australia is now expected ot plant less wheat due to a shortage of wheat for example.

To make sense of the larger picture, feel free to enjoy Koens market compass and remember tomorrow’s webinar:

War in Iran: Navigating Market Uncertainty

Saxo Weekly Market Compass 

Markets spent last week repricing a single dominant theme: energy-driven inflation risk colliding with a less accommodative policy outlook. Early-week relief faded as oil volatility and the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance pushed investors back into defensive positioning.

Trade safely.

Tuesday, March 24, 2026
Japan CPI, Global PMI,
Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Australia CPI, UK CPI, Germany IFO, US Import Prices.
Thursday, March 26, 2026
Japan PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims,
Friday, March 27, 2026
UK Retail Sales, University of Michigan