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Morning Brew March 21 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: That was and intersting FOMC, now BOE and SNB
Good morning,
The Fed painted an interesting picture of their expectations that let risk sentiment soar!
Economic growth stronger at 2.1% from 1.4%, inflation slowing down to 2.6% at year end, unemployment slightly rising to 4% form now 3,9%. They see this leaving room for still three rate cuts this year.
Indexes celebrated this by rising: the Dow 1.03%, the S&P 0.89% and Nasdaq 1.25%, the US500, US30, the GER40 and the Japan 225 are at record highs, the Nasdaq is near them.
10 year yields fell to 4.25 while the dollar lost significantly. The USD Index fell to 103.103.23 after testing the 104 just yesterday. EURUSD is 1.0937, Cable at 1.22795 and USDJPY 150.98. Gold and Silver rose to above 2200 and 25.66. Bitcoin rises to 67k.
Today will all about digesting and assessing the Feds expectations while we also expect a large amount of data releases and central banks:
Todays timeline:
International PMI through the day
9:30 Swiss National Bank Rate decision slightly in favor of no change vs a cut. Our CIO Office anticipates the SNB to signal a potential rate cut in June. Their strategy has shifted from defending a strong CHF to allowing controlled weakening for "normalization." This presents a significant upside opportunity for EURCHF.
10:00 Norwegian Central Bank,. No change expected,
12:00 Turkish Central Bank,
13:00 Bank of England
13:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
14:45 US PMI
Trade carefully today as I see sharp moves likely at any point in time. Trigger can be any of the events mentioned, profit taking or FOMO buying just to mention a few possible items. As Volatility is fairly low, it might make sense to take speculative positions with bought options to minimize the risk. If you are looking to do that, it is crucial to focus on the nominal exposure and not the premium. If you have any questions, contact us or read up in Koens education.
Thursday
- Data Japan Trade, EU PMI, Switzerland Turkey and UK Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, PMI,
- Earnings: China Mobile, Enel, BMW, Nike, Fedex, Lululemon, Accenture.
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK CPI, Germany CPI, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings:
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
NGJ4 will expire 25 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
TTFMJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
GASOLINEUSAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
GOLDAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
HEATINGOILAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
NATGASUSAPR24 will expire 22 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT