Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 21 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  That was and intersting FOMC, now BOE and SNB


Good morning,

The Fed painted an interesting picture of their expectations that let risk sentiment soar!

Economic growth stronger at 2.1% from 1.4%, inflation slowing down to 2.6% at year end, unemployment slightly rising to 4% form now 3,9%. They see this leaving room for still three rate cuts this year.

Indexes celebrated this by rising: the Dow 1.03%, the S&P 0.89% and  Nasdaq 1.25%, the US500, US30, the GER40 and the Japan 225 are at record highs, the Nasdaq is near them.

10 year yields fell to 4.25 while the dollar lost significantly. The USD Index fell to 103.103.23 after testing the 104 just yesterday. EURUSD is 1.0937, Cable at 1.22795 and USDJPY 150.98. Gold and Silver rose  to above 2200 and 25.66. Bitcoin rises to 67k.

Today will all about digesting and assessing the Feds expectations while we also expect a large amount  of data releases and central banks:

Todays timeline: 

International PMI through the day

9:30  Swiss National Bank Rate decision slightly in favor of no change vs a cut. Our CIO Office  anticipates the SNB to signal a potential rate cut in June. Their strategy has shifted from defending a strong CHF to allowing controlled weakening for "normalization." This presents a significant upside opportunity for EURCHF.

10:00 Norwegian Central Bank,. No change expected,

12:00 Turkish Central Bank,

13:00 Bank of England

13:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed

14:45 US PMI

Trade carefully today as I see sharp moves likely at any point in time. Trigger can be any of the events mentioned, profit taking or FOMO buying just to mention a few possible items.  As Volatility is fairly low, it might make sense to take speculative positions with bought options to minimize the risk. If you are looking to do that, it is crucial to focus on the nominal exposure and not the premium. If you have any questions, contact us or read up in Koens education.

Thursday

- Data Japan Trade, EU PMI, Switzerland Turkey and UK  Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, PMI,

- Earnings: China Mobile, Enel, BMW, Nike, Fedex, Lululemon, Accenture.

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK CPI, Germany CPI, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings:

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

NGJ4 will expire 25 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

TTFMJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

GASOLINEUSAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

GOLDAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

HEATINGOILAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

NATGASUSAPR24 will expire 22 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.