Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 21 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  That was and intersting FOMC, now BOE and SNB


Good morning,

The Fed painted an interesting picture of their expectations that let risk sentiment soar!

Economic growth stronger at 2.1% from 1.4%, inflation slowing down to 2.6% at year end, unemployment slightly rising to 4% form now 3,9%. They see this leaving room for still three rate cuts this year.

Indexes celebrated this by rising: the Dow 1.03%, the S&P 0.89% and  Nasdaq 1.25%, the US500, US30, the GER40 and the Japan 225 are at record highs, the Nasdaq is near them.

10 year yields fell to 4.25 while the dollar lost significantly. The USD Index fell to 103.103.23 after testing the 104 just yesterday. EURUSD is 1.0937, Cable at 1.22795 and USDJPY 150.98. Gold and Silver rose  to above 2200 and 25.66. Bitcoin rises to 67k.

Today will all about digesting and assessing the Feds expectations while we also expect a large amount  of data releases and central banks:

Todays timeline: 

International PMI through the day

9:30  Swiss National Bank Rate decision slightly in favor of no change vs a cut. Our CIO Office  anticipates the SNB to signal a potential rate cut in June. Their strategy has shifted from defending a strong CHF to allowing controlled weakening for "normalization." This presents a significant upside opportunity for EURCHF.

10:00 Norwegian Central Bank,. No change expected,

12:00 Turkish Central Bank,

13:00 Bank of England

13:30 Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed

14:45 US PMI

Trade carefully today as I see sharp moves likely at any point in time. Trigger can be any of the events mentioned, profit taking or FOMO buying just to mention a few possible items.  As Volatility is fairly low, it might make sense to take speculative positions with bought options to minimize the risk. If you are looking to do that, it is crucial to focus on the nominal exposure and not the premium. If you have any questions, contact us or read up in Koens education.

Thursday

- Data Japan Trade, EU PMI, Switzerland Turkey and UK  Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, PMI,

- Earnings: China Mobile, Enel, BMW, Nike, Fedex, Lululemon, Accenture.

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK CPI, Germany CPI, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings:

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

NGJ4 will expire 25 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

TTFMJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

GASOLINEUSAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

GOLDAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

HEATINGOILAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

NATGASUSAPR24 will expire 22 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.