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Morning Brew March 2 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Ukraine and sanctions drive the market but Inflation is the elephant in the room
Good Morning,
The war in Ukraine and the sanctions are the main driver in the market at the moment. Driven by the sanctions, Oil rose to USD 110 per barrel and overall risk off sentiment prevailed.
Indexes closed app 1.5% lower in the US and more in Europe, Gold and Silver jumped higher to 1950 and 25.54, this morning they give up some ground. EURUSD falls to 1.1110 and GBPUSD to 1.33.
The Bund Future rises to 170 again and yields drop accordingly, the German 10 Year is negative again at -0.097. The Swiss Franc appreciates to 1.0210 against the EUR and 91.86 against the USD. Bitcoin can hold at 44k.
Volatility it the 1 month ATM Option hits 10%
Putin has managed to unite the western world in a way that I cannot recall with governments, companies and private individuals joining against Russia and against Ukraine. In his state of the Union address Joe Biden managed to unite US Lawmakers against Russia "While he may make gains on the battlefield – he will pay a continuing high price over the long run," "He has no idea what's coming."
Google is banning certain apps from the play store, Apple discontinuing the sale of iPhone in Russia, Oil companies are pulling out of investments and joint ventures and other companies are also pulling out. Russia announced it was suspending coupons on its Bonds and preventing outflows
Sberbank announces it`s withdrawal from the European Market after outflows.
In the short term, I expect news around the direct developments in Ukraine to drive markets and risk sentiment, soon inflation and stagflation that seems to be developing will make headlines again and will need to be addressed.
On a technical note, the Dax bounced off the minor 13800 support again, key levels remain the 14800 and 13310.
Economic data today are the releases of the German unemployment data, the EU HICP and the BoC rate decision at 16:00 CET.
Stay save and trade safely.