Morning Brew June 30 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: H2 end ahead of long US weekend - Erratic trading?
Tomorrow I will be travelling so the next update in Monday. Pls bear in mind that Monday is the 4th of July holiday in the US and the US Non Farm Payroll will only be released on the 8th of July not tomorrow, there is a good deal of data today though.
Towards the start of Q3 we will launch our Q3 outlook and also invite to webinars where we will walk through our scnenarios, please find all events here: Upcoming events and webinars | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Yesterday was a slow day in equities and more interesting in FX. For once the Dow was the strongest mover among the three US Indexes gaining 0.27%, the S&P and the Nasdaq less than 0.1%. Over night, Asian stock markets gave up some ground. It is noteworthy that our strats team in Asia is rather bullish for China relative to the rest of the world.
The USD Index rose to 105 EURUSD fell to 1.0455 and GBPUSD to 1.2133. EURCHF is trading below parity. The move is a safe haven move on the one hand, on the other the Euro lost in value as German inflation came lower than feared. BoEs new member Dhingra voiced dovish tones yesterday. Jerome Powell maintained his hawkish stance and stating that lowering inflation will be painful but necessary.
We are seeing a number of companies including Swiss Novartis and Tesla to introduce cost cutting measures, that may be a bad sign if it spreads.
Gold and Silver remain weak and are trading near support at 1815 and 20.70, Bitcoin holds just below the 20k
US Yields fell to 3.1% on risk-off trading.
The Chinese PMI rose to above 50 again showing the economy is no longer contracting. At 8 this morning the UK GDP and the German import prices as well as the Retail sales will be released, followed by the Swiss KOF and the official reserves, RU unemployment comes at 11 and US Consumption, PCE and the usual employment data at 14:30. The Chicago PMI will be released at 15:45.
Over Night the Japanese Tankan report is due along with the Chinese PMI, Swiss PMI at 9:30, France 9:50, Germany 9:55, UK 10:30, US 15:45. EU HICP is released at 11:00 and the ISD Index at 16:00
It will be a strange trading day with half year end, a long US Weekend and a lot of uncertainty driving moves.
Physically Settled Futures:
RBN2, SBN2 will 30th June at 15:00 GMT
BZQ2 will expire 30th June at 18:30 GMT
LBN2 will expire 1st July 15:00 GMT
INDIA50JUN22 will expire 30th June at 2:00 GMT
OILUKAUG22 will expire 30th June at 15:00 GMT