Log in Open account
International
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 
Show more
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew June 30 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  H2 end ahead of long US weekend - Erratic trading?

Good Morning,

Tomorrow I will be travelling so the next update in Monday. Pls bear in mind that Monday is the 4th of July holiday in the US and the US Non Farm Payroll will only be released on the 8th of July not tomorrow, there is a good deal of data today though. 

Towards the start of Q3 we will launch our Q3 outlook and also invite to webinars where we will walk through our scnenarios, please find all events here: Upcoming events and webinars | Saxo Group (home.saxo)

Yesterday was a slow day in equities and more interesting in FX. For once the Dow was the strongest mover among the three US Indexes gaining 0.27%, the S&P and the Nasdaq less than 0.1%. Over night, Asian stock markets gave up some ground. It is noteworthy that our strats team in Asia is rather bullish for China relative to the rest of the world.

The USD Index rose to 105  EURUSD fell to 1.0455 and GBPUSD to 1.2133. EURCHF is trading below parity.  The move is a safe haven move on the one hand, on the other the Euro lost in value as German inflation came lower than feared. BoEs new member Dhingra voiced dovish tones yesterday. Jerome Powell maintained his hawkish stance and stating that lowering inflation will be painful but necessary.

We are seeing a number of companies including Swiss Novartis and Tesla to introduce cost cutting measures, that may be a bad sign if it spreads.

Gold and Silver remain weak and are trading near support at 1815 and 20.70, Bitcoin holds just below the 20k

US Yields fell to 3.1% on risk-off trading.

The Chinese PMI rose to above 50 again showing the economy is no longer contracting. At 8 this morning the UK GDP and the German import prices as well as the Retail sales will be released, followed by the Swiss KOF and the official reserves, RU unemployment comes at 11 and US Consumption, PCE and the usual employment data at 14:30. The Chicago PMI will be released at 15:45.

Over Night the Japanese Tankan report is due along with the Chinese PMI, Swiss PMI at 9:30, France 9:50, Germany 9:55, UK 10:30, US 15:45. EU HICP is released at 11:00 and the ISD Index at 16:00 

It will be a strange trading day with half year end, a long US Weekend and a lot of uncertainty driving moves.

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures:

RBN2, SBN2 will 30th June at 15:00 GMT

BZQ2 will expire 30th June at 18:30 GMT

LBN2 will expire 1st July 15:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs:

INDIA50JUN22 will expire 30th June at 2:00 GMT

OILUKAUG22 will expire 30th June at 15:00 GMT

Trade safely.

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.