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Morning Brew - June 1st
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
And Welcome to June. May was fairly decent to Equities, Dax gained 2.4%, the Dow 1.8%% Nasdaq 100 lost 1.4%, the Nikei gained 2%.
After the holiday in the US and the UK yesterday, the start in to June is friendly with Indexes up app 0.3%, the USD Index falls below the 90 again despite the US 10 Year Yield rising to 1.62%. The EURUSD rises to 1.2225, GBPUSD to 1.4225 and Gold and Silver rise to 1914 and 28.30, the 1 month volatility in XAGUSD remains above 30% vs 13% for XAUUSD
In China the PMI came higher than expected but Caixin Insights sees inflationary pressure and supply chin constraints weighing.
The UK House prices came much higher than expected, +1.8 monthly and +10.9% anually.
While there are many data releases and surprises can move markets at any point in time, overall focus remains on the stimulus and tapering developments in the US: The Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment rate on Friday is seen as the next important gauge on what to expect on the tapering front. A miss would calm the hawks while a strong number would fuel the discussion on faster tapering.
Safe Trading
Economic Events for the next few days:
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Prior |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | May | 2.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | May | 7.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Russia | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 50.4 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Cash Reserve Ratio | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Repo Rate | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Reverse Repo Rate | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Manufacturing PMI | May | 50.4 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:45 | Italy | Markit/IHS Mfg PMI | May | 60.7 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 59.2 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | May | 64.0 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Chg SA | May | 9k | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate SA | May | 6.0% | 6.0% |
1 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | May | 62.8 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final | May | 66.1 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | GDP Final QQ | Q1 | -0.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | GDP Final YY | Q1 | -1.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Turkey | ITO Istanbul Retail Prices | May | 1.01% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | May | 1.9% | 1.6% |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | May | 0.8% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 8.1% | 8.1% |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP QQ | Q1 | 3.2% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP YY | Q1 | -1.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 1 Jun, w/e | 4,150 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP QQ Annualized | Q1 | 9.6% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | Mar | 0.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 52.3 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | May | 57.2 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Final | May | 61.5 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | May | 60.8 | 60.7 |
1 Jun 2021 | 16:30 | Mexico | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 48.4 | |
2 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Indonesia | IHS Markit PMI | May | 54.6 | |
2 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP QQ SA | Q1 | 3.1% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP YY SA | Q1 | -1.1% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Apr | 10.5% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Mauritius | REPO Rate | Q2 | 1.85% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 23:00 | Chile | Interest Rate | May | 0.50% | |
2 Jun 2021 | Indonesia | Inflation YY | May | 1.42% | ||
3 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | May | 49.5 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | Apr | 1.1% | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Apr | 5,574M | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | May | 56.3 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 06:15 | Saudi Arabia | IHS Markit Comp PMI | May | 55.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 07:00 | India | IHS Markit Svcs PMI | May | 49.0 | 54.0 |
3 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | May | 178,963.97M | |
3 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Russia | Markit Services PMI | May | 55.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | May | 1.68% | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:15 | South Africa | Std Bank Whole Econ PMI | May | 53.7 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | May | 56.6 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | May | 57.0 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | May | 52.8 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 56.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | May | 55.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 56.9 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 24 May, w/e | ||
3 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 68.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | May | 70.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | May | 62.9 | 62.7 |
4 Jun 2021 | 03:00 | Philippines | CPI YY | May | 4.5% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Cash Reserve Ratio | 4 Jun | 4.00% | 3.50% |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Repo Rate | 4 Jun | 4.00% | 4.00% |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Reverse Repo Rate | 4 Jun | 3.35% | 3.35% |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | May | 621k | 266k |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | May | 5.9% | 6.1% |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | May | 0.3% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | May | -207.1k | |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | May | 8.1% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | May | 42.9 | |
4 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | May | 44.5 | |
4 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Apr | 1.1% |
(Refinitiv)
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