Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
And Welcome to June. May was fairly decent to Equities, Dax gained 2.4%, the Dow 1.8%% Nasdaq 100 lost 1.4%, the Nikei gained 2%.
After the holiday in the US and the UK yesterday, the start in to June is friendly with Indexes up app 0.3%, the USD Index falls below the 90 again despite the US 10 Year Yield rising to 1.62%. The EURUSD rises to 1.2225, GBPUSD to 1.4225 and Gold and Silver rise to 1914 and 28.30, the 1 month volatility in XAGUSD remains above 30% vs 13% for XAUUSD
In China the PMI came higher than expected but Caixin Insights sees inflationary pressure and supply chin constraints weighing.
The UK House prices came much higher than expected, +1.8 monthly and +10.9% anually.
While there are many data releases and surprises can move markets at any point in time, overall focus remains on the stimulus and tapering developments in the US: The Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment rate on Friday is seen as the next important gauge on what to expect on the tapering front. A miss would calm the hawks while a strong number would fuel the discussion on faster tapering.
Safe Trading
Economic Events for the next few days:
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll | Prior |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | May | 2.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | May | 7.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Russia | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 50.4 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Cash Reserve Ratio | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Repo Rate | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Reverse Repo Rate | 4 Jun | ||
1 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Manufacturing PMI | May | 50.4 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:45 | Italy | Markit/IHS Mfg PMI | May | 60.7 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 59.2 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | May | 64.0 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Chg SA | May | 9k | |
1 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate SA | May | 6.0% | 6.0% |
1 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | May | 62.8 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final | May | 66.1 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | GDP Final QQ | Q1 | -0.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | GDP Final YY | Q1 | -1.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Turkey | ITO Istanbul Retail Prices | May | 1.01% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | May | 1.9% | 1.6% |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | May | 0.8% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 8.1% | 8.1% |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP QQ | Q1 | 3.2% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP YY | Q1 | -1.1% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | Milk Auctions | 1 Jun, w/e | 4,150 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP QQ Annualized | Q1 | 9.6% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | Mar | 0.4% | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 52.3 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | May | 57.2 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Final | May | 61.5 | |
1 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | May | 60.8 | 60.7 |
1 Jun 2021 | 16:30 | Mexico | Markit Mfg PMI | May | 48.4 | |
2 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Indonesia | IHS Markit PMI | May | 54.6 | |
2 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP QQ SA | Q1 | 3.1% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP YY SA | Q1 | -1.1% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Apr | 10.5% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Mauritius | REPO Rate | Q2 | 1.85% | |
2 Jun 2021 | 23:00 | Chile | Interest Rate | May | 0.50% | |
2 Jun 2021 | Indonesia | Inflation YY | May | 1.42% | ||
3 Jun 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | May | 49.5 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Retail Sales MM Final | Apr | 1.1% | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Apr | 5,574M | |
3 Jun 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | May | 56.3 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 06:15 | Saudi Arabia | IHS Markit Comp PMI | May | 55.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 07:00 | India | IHS Markit Svcs PMI | May | 49.0 | 54.0 |
3 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | May | 178,963.97M | |
3 Jun 2021 | 08:00 | Russia | Markit Services PMI | May | 55.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | May | 1.68% | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:15 | South Africa | Std Bank Whole Econ PMI | May | 53.7 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | May | 56.6 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | May | 57.0 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | May | 52.8 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 56.2 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | May | 55.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 56.9 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 24 May, w/e | ||
3 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | May | 68.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | May | 70.1 | |
3 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | May | 62.9 | 62.7 |
4 Jun 2021 | 03:00 | Philippines | CPI YY | May | 4.5% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Cash Reserve Ratio | 4 Jun | 4.00% | 3.50% |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Repo Rate | 4 Jun | 4.00% | 4.00% |
4 Jun 2021 | 08:15 | India | Reverse Repo Rate | 4 Jun | 3.35% | 3.35% |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | May | 621k | 266k |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | May | 5.9% | 6.1% |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | May | 0.3% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | May | -207.1k | |
4 Jun 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | May | 8.1% | |
4 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | May | 42.9 | |
4 Jun 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | May | 44.5 | |
4 Jun 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Apr | 1.1% |
(Refinitiv)