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Morning Brew July 9 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Averseness brings back volatility
Good Morning
Risk aversion hit traders yesterday with global equities under pressure and bonds yields dropping. US Indexes lost app 0.8% , the Dax lost 1.7% but was supported by the lower end of the trading range. The 10 Year yield is holding near 1.3%. The fall in yields is putting the “reflation” trade into question and a shift out of banks and energy could cause interesting moves.
Gold and Silver fall to 1800 and 25.80 and Bitcoin trades at 33000. EURUSD is at 1.1830 and Cable is below the 1.38.
Trigger was a combination of rising corona cases across the world, uncertainty about the path the Fed will likely take and the RCB adjusting it`s inflation target.
The Swiss Frank gained strength yesterday, EURCHF fell 76 pips after news that the SNB forex reserves rose. EURCHF is trading at at 1.0840.
The Biden administration is expected to blacklist additional Chinese companies on human rights issues.
The IMF is planning the distribution of USD 650 bio via Special Drawing rights as early as late August.
The mood seems to lighten at the moment with futures rising but it seems brittle and a little caution seems warranted. Worth watching are the 200d Moving average in Silver exactly where we are currently trading, also the lower end of the Dax Wedge comes at 15350 and held up nicely yesterday.
Trade safely
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
9 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | PPI YY | Jun | 8.8% |
9 Jul 2021 | 03:30 | China (Mainland) | CPI YY | Jun | 1.3% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Est 3M/3M | May | 3.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate MM | May | 1.5% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | GDP Estimate YY | May | 25.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Output MM | May | 1.0% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index MM | Jun | 0.4% |
9 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | Consumer Price Index YY | Jun | 2.9% |
9 Jul 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Current Account Balance | May | -3.025B |
9 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Employment Change | Jun | 195.0k |
9 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Unemployment Rate | Jun | 7.7% |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price MM | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Corp Goods Price YY | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders MM | May | |
12 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders YY | May | |
12 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | CPI YY | Jun | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | Total Social Financing | Jun | 2,800.00B | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | M2 Money Supply YY | Jun | 8.2% | |
12 Jul 2021 | China (Mainland) | New Yuan Loans | Jun | 1,800.0B |
(Refinitiv)