Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 9 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Risk Averseness brings back volatility


Good Morning

Risk aversion hit traders yesterday with global equities under pressure and bonds yields dropping. US Indexes lost app 0.8% , the Dax lost 1.7% but was supported by the lower end of the trading range. The 10 Year yield is holding near 1.3%. The fall in yields is putting the “reflation” trade into question and a shift out of banks and energy could cause interesting moves.

Gold and Silver fall to 1800 and 25.80 and Bitcoin trades at 33000. EURUSD is at 1.1830  and Cable is below the 1.38.

Trigger was a combination of rising corona cases across the world, uncertainty about the path the Fed will likely take and the RCB adjusting it`s inflation target.

The Swiss Frank gained strength yesterday, EURCHF fell 76 pips after news that the SNB forex reserves rose. EURCHF is trading at  at 1.0840.

The Biden administration is expected to blacklist additional Chinese companies on human rights issues.

The IMF is planning the distribution of USD 650 bio  via Special Drawing rights as early as late August.

The mood seems to lighten at the moment with futures rising but it seems brittle and a little caution seems warranted. Worth watching are the 200d Moving average in Silver exactly where we are currently trading, also the lower end of the Dax Wedge comes at 15350 and held up nicely yesterday.

Trade safely

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

9 Jul 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

PPI YY

Jun

8.8%

9 Jul 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

CPI YY

Jun

1.3%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

May

3.9%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

May

1.5%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

May

25.9%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

May

1.0%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index MM

Jun

0.4%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index YY

Jun

2.9%

9 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

May

-3.025B

9 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Employment Change

Jun

195.0k

9 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Unemployment Rate

Jun

7.7%

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

Jun

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

Jun

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders MM

May

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders YY

May

12 Jul 2021

08:00

Denmark

CPI YY

Jun

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jun

2,800.00B

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

Jun

8.2%

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

Jun

1,800.0B

(Refinitiv)


Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zürich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved, we have put together a general Risk Warning and a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed here or within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.