Erik Erik Erik

Morning Brew July 9 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Risk Averseness brings back volatility


Good Morning

Risk aversion hit traders yesterday with global equities under pressure and bonds yields dropping. US Indexes lost app 0.8% , the Dax lost 1.7% but was supported by the lower end of the trading range. The 10 Year yield is holding near 1.3%. The fall in yields is putting the “reflation” trade into question and a shift out of banks and energy could cause interesting moves.

Gold and Silver fall to 1800 and 25.80 and Bitcoin trades at 33000. EURUSD is at 1.1830  and Cable is below the 1.38.

Trigger was a combination of rising corona cases across the world, uncertainty about the path the Fed will likely take and the RCB adjusting it`s inflation target.

The Swiss Frank gained strength yesterday, EURCHF fell 76 pips after news that the SNB forex reserves rose. EURCHF is trading at  at 1.0840.

The Biden administration is expected to blacklist additional Chinese companies on human rights issues.

The IMF is planning the distribution of USD 650 bio  via Special Drawing rights as early as late August.

The mood seems to lighten at the moment with futures rising but it seems brittle and a little caution seems warranted. Worth watching are the 200d Moving average in Silver exactly where we are currently trading, also the lower end of the Dax Wedge comes at 15350 and held up nicely yesterday.

Trade safely

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

9 Jul 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

PPI YY

Jun

8.8%

9 Jul 2021

03:30

China (Mainland)

CPI YY

Jun

1.3%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Est 3M/3M

May

3.9%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate MM

May

1.5%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

GDP Estimate YY

May

25.9%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Manufacturing Output MM

May

1.0%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index MM

Jun

0.4%

9 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Consumer Price Index YY

Jun

2.9%

9 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

Current Account Balance

May

-3.025B

9 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Employment Change

Jun

195.0k

9 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Unemployment Rate

Jun

7.7%

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price MM

Jun

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Corp Goods Price YY

Jun

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders MM

May

12 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Machinery Orders YY

May

12 Jul 2021

08:00

Denmark

CPI YY

Jun

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

Total Social Financing

Jun

2,800.00B

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

M2 Money Supply YY

Jun

8.2%

12 Jul 2021

China (Mainland)

New Yuan Loans

Jun

1,800.0B

(Refinitiv)


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