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Morning Brew January 7 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Trudeau resigns, Transition and Data key
Good morning,
The had a good day yesterday and boosted the Nasdaq and the S&P by 0.55 and 1.25%, the Dow moved minutely. Micron gained more than 10%, AMD and Nvidia more than 3% in huge volumes. US exchanges traded more than 17 bio shares against the 20 day average of 12.4 billion.
US Yields rose further, even if only slightly, we are trading at 4.62 in the 10 year but the USD Index gave up some ground to trade at 108.24. John Wrote an FX Update looking at the sharp USD Moves,
Ole took a look at the relative positioning: Speculators in forex ended the year holding a $32.3bn net USD long vs eight IMM futures and DXY. Apart from a brief peak last April, this was the biggest bet on a stronger dollar since mid-2019. Besides small net longs in GBP and MXN, all other currencies were traded from the short side, led by CAD (-$12.3bn), EUR (-$9bn), CHF (-$4.6bn), and AUD (-$4.4bn
EURUSD is at 1.04, GBPUSD 1.2540 and USDJPY 157.75, Gold is trading at 2640 and Silver 30.10 while Bitcoin broke above the 100k again, ahead of the Swiss CPI, EURCHF is 0.94 and USDCHF 90.35. The expectation for the next SNB meeting in March is a 25 bps cut with a probability of 93%. The CPI release could impact this, the annual number is seen at 0.6%. The French will follow at 8:45 (expected 1.9%)
Justin Trudeau announced his resignation yesterday as soon as new leader for his party is found, Michael Barr will resign his position on Feb 28.
In politics, Donald Trump`s election was confirmed yesterday as expected and his tariff strategy caused some confusion yesterday after initial reports his tariffs may not be as broad as expected were denied.
We are expecting a data laden day while watching the transition team and Elon Musk closely.
Tuesday:
Data: UK House Prices, Switzerland CPI, France CPI, EU Inflation & Unemployment , US International Trade & ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings , Canada Trade Balance
- Thomas Barkin speaks
Wednesday:
- Data: AU CPI, DE Industrial Orders, EU Consumer Confidence US Initial Jobless Claims
- Fed Minutes release, Waller speaks
Thursday:
- Data: US Market Holiday for Jimmy Carters Memorial Service EU Retail Sales, China CPI PPI, DE Industrial Production,
- Barkin, Schmid, and Bowman speak, Space with Elon Musk and Alice Weidel
Friday:
- Data: Switzerland Unemployment Rate, Norway & Denmark CPI, US Nonfarm Payroll, University of Michigan Sentiment Preliminary