Morning Brew January 29 2026

Good morning,

The recent announcements from the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell’s speech did not present any surprises. The Fed maintained interest rates at 3.5%–3.75%. Economic growth remains steady, with job gains being low but unemployment stable amidst high inflation. The Fed will continue to monitor data for potential future rate changes.

Microsoft reported earnings that exceeded estimates, yet the stock fell 6.11% due to a 66% surge in AI spending and disappointing Azure growth. In contrast, Meta rose 7% after posting strong earnings while effectively managing capex costs. Tesla also rose 1.7% despite weaker profit and EV sales figures, as Elon Musk announced the cessation of the Model S/X to pave the way for Optimus robots.

Ruben conducted a deeper analysis of the earnings reports from the "Big Three": Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla,

The S&P 500 briefly surpassed the 7,000 mark for the first time but ended slightly lower. The Dow finished virtually unchanged, while the STOXX fell by 15 points, weighed down by LVMH’s 7.3% slide after disappointing results. The DAX gave up 0.3%. ASML ended 1.7% lower after paring strong intraday gains driven by robust order data.

Oil rose 1.3% due to risks related to Iran intervention, and copper gained 1%. The trading focus is predominantly on precious metals: Gold surged above 5500, trading at 5570; Silver is testing the 120 mark, and Platinum is at 2750. This movement seems driven more by sentiment and FOMO than by fundamentals, leaving future direction uncertain.

The USD index stands at 96, with EURUSD near 1.20, GBPUSD at 1.3835, and USDJPY at 153.

Headlines:

• India's economy is projected to grow between 6.8% and 7.2% in the fiscal year beginning April, according to government forecasts.
• SAP reported fourth-quarter revenue that met market estimates.
• Progress was made by U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer in averting a government shutdown.
• President Trump is considering options against Iran, including targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters.
• Russia's No. 2 oil producer, Lukoil, announced an agreement to sell LUKOIL International GmbH, which manages its foreign assets, to U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group.
• Hyundai Motor reported a larger-than-expected profit fall in Q4 due to U.S. tariffs.

Today, we expect moderately important data releases, with attention likely focused on Apple earnings and outlooks from credit card companies. I am keen to hear comments on the proposed 10% interest rate cap suggested by Donald Trump. In his Davos interview, Jamie Dimon expressed concerns that lower-income groups might not benefit from the lower rate but could lose access to credit.

Given the recent volatility in the JPY and Japanese Government bonds, tonight's Tokyo CPI data may hold particular interest.

Trade Safely

Thursday January 29

Data EU Consumer Confidence, US initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders

Earnings :  Mastercard, Visa, Apple, SAP, SANDISK

Friday January 30

Data Tokyo CPI, Swiss KoF

Earnings SoFi, American Express Verizon,  Chevron, ExxonMobile,