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Morning Brew January 24 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets happy with Trump, USD weaker
Good morning,
Monday and Tuesday I will be off, back Wednesday for the FOMC
Donald`s Trumps first international appearance as new president was rather well received by traders.
He stated the new Golden Age of America has begun.
His focus was on appearing deal-oriented in an America first context. We advocated a corporate tax rate of 15% for goods produced in the US while threatening tariffs on imports. He bashed the EU for fining US companies that violate EU laws but also calls for deregulation. He wants lower Interest rates in the US.
He wants to end the war in Ukraine and hopes he can convince China to help end the war in Ukraine.
He stated AI will cause the US to double it`s electricity needs and that he would use executive orders to approve local oil and gas driven power plants next to data centers. Over night he announced a crypto working group to review crypto regulation and to consider a a (US)national Crypto reserve.
Indexes traded overall friendly but there was a lot of underlying volatility due to earning reports:
- EA lost almost 17%
- American Airlines lost 8.7%
- GE gained 6.6%
Volumes were low at less than 14 billion shares traded and in the end, the Dow closed up 0.92%, the S&P 500 up 0.53% and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%, the Dax is looking to open at 21500.
US 10 Year yields are calm at 4.62 while the USD Index fell as the Greenback fell to below 108 (107.78) EURUSD is 1.0450, GBPUSD 1.2385 and USDJPY 155.50
Gold and Silver are higher at 2772 and 30.80 after huge swings yesterday.
We are heading in to a massively important week, we are expecting the US and EU Interest rates, with the fed nearly certainly with no change, the ECB ius seen to cut 25 BPS, several of the magnificent 7 be reporting, on Friday, the PCE will provide guidance on US inflation and of course the US administration will keep us on our toes.
If the US are looking to impose tariffs from Feb 1 they will need to set them fast.
Remain nimble but calm.
Friday
- Japan CPI & Rate Decision Global PMI
- Verizon, American Express, Ericsson
Christine Lagarde and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink speak at Davos
Monday
- Data German Ifo Index, US New House Sales
- Earnings: AT&T
Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, US Durable Goods Orders & Conumer Confidence,
- Boeing, SAP, GM, Lockheed Martin,
Wednesday,
- AU CPI, Sweden GDP& Rate Decision, Bank of Canada, FOMC Rate decision,.
- Earnings: Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, ASML, IBM,
Thursday
- France GDP, De GDP, EU GDP, ECB Rate Decision, US GDP, Initial Jobless claim
- Earnings: Apple, Intel, Nokia, UPS, Dow, Blackstone,
Friday;
- China PMI, France CPI, US PCE,
- Earnings: Abbvie, Colgate Palmolive, Chevron.