Morning Brew January 20 2026

Good morning,

Yesterday, European stocks retreated from last week’s record highs after U.S. President Trump threatened new tariffs on major European economies. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 dropped 1.7%, and the STOXX 600 fell 1.2%. Luxury and auto stocks were hit hardest, with LVMH, Adidas, Hermès, BMW, and Volkswagen all declining. Defense firms moved in the opposite direction, with Rheinmetall, Dassault, SAAB, and Leonardo advancing.

Overnight, U.S. indexes traded under pressure, with the US Tech 100 at 25,131 (–1.5%), the US 500 at 6,845 (–1.3%), and the US 30 at 48,735 (–1.3%). The GER40 is down 0.6% at 24,785.

While U.S. yields continue to rise, the USD is declining — not a particularly encouraging sign. The 10‑year yield stands at 4.27%, while the USD Index has dropped below 99. EURUSD trades at 1.1665, GBPUSD at 1.3430, and USDJPY at 158.40.

Gold has risen above 4,700 to trade at 4,713. Silver remains elevated near 94, platinum is at 2,375, and copper is trading steadily at 592. The implied volatility of a 1 Month ATM Option is at 70%!  Bitcoin has fallen to 90,000.

Quo vadis?

The largest event risk today lies in U.S. and global politics. President Trump blamed the Nobel Committee for his threats against Greenland, arguing he sees no point in striving for peace if he does not receive the Nobel Peace Prize — no comment required.

The U.S. Supreme Court may decide on the tariffs today. As the court does not publish a schedule, we remain in the dark as to when the ruling will be issued. Whenever it comes, it will be significant, so caution is warranted.

In Davos, the WEF officially opens today, with key speakers including Emmanuel Macron, Scott Bessent, Ursula von der Leyen, He Lifeng, and Mark Carney.

In Germany, we expect the ZEW Index at 11:00, with forecasts at 50 for economic sentiment and –76 for current conditions.

There in no key US Data but several Earnigns releses with Netflix after the close as highlight.

Other headlines:
• OpenAI has tripled its revenue to 20 billion and will launch ads on ChatGPT.
• The IMF has raised its global growth forecast to 3.3%, driven by resilient activity and AI‑related investments.
• Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi is expected to call a snap election.

TradeSafely.

Tuesday January 20

Data  China Rate Decision; UK Unemployment, Germany ZEW,

Earnings Netflix 3m US BancorpNetflix. Interactive Brokers

Speakers:  WEF in Davos

Wednesday January 21

Data UK CPI

Earnings Johnson & Johnson, Halliburton.

Speakers:  WEF in Davos

Thursday January 22

Data Japan Trade Data, US GDP Final, Initial Jobless Claims, Australia CPI & PMI

Earnings P&G, Intel Alcoa.

Speakers:  WEF in Davos

Friday January 23

Data Japan CPI International PMI; University of Michigan

Earnings Ericsson

Speakers:  WEF in Davos