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Morning Brew January 13 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Yields cause worries
Good morning,
A blowout US Jobs report led yields to rise, with ten-year yields reaching 4.77%, and the 5% mark in view. For 2025, a second rate cut now seems off the table, causing a significant risk-off move—the big three US indexes dropped around 1.5%. For the week, they lost around 2%. This morning, we are trading a little lower again at approximately -0.3% across most indexes. The big outlier on Friday was Walgreens, which had its biggest percentage gain since 1980.
The USD Index is approaching 1.10, currently at 109.77, with EURUSD at 1.0220, GBPUSD falling further to 1.2150, and USDJPY at 157.40. Gold and Silver are holding up well amid global uncertainty and increased oil prices, with Gold at 2688 and Silver at 30.29. US Crude is at 78 USD per barrel, driven higher by US sanctions against Russia and strong demand due to cold weather. Commodities Weekly: Strong start to 2025
Bitcoin remains under pressure due to a possible sale by the US. From a technical standpoint, we might be looking at a shoulder-head-shoulder formation if we close below 92k.
Earnings season starts with the big US banks and TSMC this week. Q4 Bank Earnings Preview: Higher Rates, Higher Stakes https://social.saxo/l7ys0oq?uuid=7sTd3hg
TikTok faces a January 19th deadline to be sold or become unavailable in the US for new downloads.
The UK is experiencing stagflation with rising yields, and despite this, the pound is falling, which does not bode well for Britain. FX Update: UK looks at stagflation
This is the last week of the Biden Presidency, and the big question on everyone's mind is if we are seeing a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" move or if we are already in the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" mode.
Trade safely and expect nervous trading. Key events this week are US CPI, PPI, and retail sales, as well as German and EU inflation, earnings, and overall sentiment.
- Monday - Data: Sweden House Prices, China Trade
- Tuesday - Data: Japan Current Account, US PPI; Schmidt and Williams speak
- Wednesday - Data: Japan Tankan, UK, Sweden, France, and US CPI; Fed Barkin speaks, Fed's Beige Book; Earnings: JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, BNY, Goldman Sachs
- Thursday - Data: AU Employment Data, Germany Inflation, UK GDP, IT CPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Philly Fed; Earnings: TSMC, Bank of America, US Bancorp
- Friday - Data: China Retail Sales, GDP, EU Harmonized Inflation, US Industrial Production; State Street