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Morning Brew April 3 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: This is the end of the world as we know it
Good morning,
Donald Trump announced his “Reciprocal” Tariffs yesterday. A flat 10% import tariff and higher tariffs for certain countries:
China: 34%, Japan: 24% Eurozone: 20% UK: 10% India: 26% Switzerland: 31% Brazil:10%, Vietnam: 46%. It is unclear how these levels came about but there will be harsh discussions.
The reciprocal tariffs do not apply to certain goods, including copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber, gold, energy and "certain minerals that are not available locally.
The market reacts nervously: Indexes fall US Yields drop while EU and UK jump (US 10 Y falls to 4.05, EU rises to 2.71, UK 4.66)
EURUSD rose to 1.0915, GBPUSD 1.3065, USDJPY 147.30. Gold is strong at 3145 while Silver loses 1.5% to trade at 33.35. Gold seems to prove t`s worth as inflation hedge while Silver is being traded as industrial metal today. Oil sheds 1% and Bitcoin and Ethereum lose more than 2%. The Swiss Franc gains 0.8% versus the US to 0.8750
The US 500 fell to 5438 before recovering to now 5515, the Nikkei gives up 3%, the GER30 2%, the reaction of the SMI will be interesting, the tariffs on Switzerland are high at 31% but the exemption of pharmaceuticals could help a little.
Shares of companies linked to sectors that will be hardest hit by the new round of levies were sharply lower in late New York trading. Nike Inc., Gap Inc. and Lululemon Athletica Inc. all fell at least 7%. They rely on goods and factories from Vietnam. Apple Inc., whose supply chain is heavily dependent on China, fell as much as 6.9%. Chipmakers such as Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. were down, as were multinationals Caterpillar Inc. and Boeing Co. Apple was down 5%, Meta 4%, Amazon 2.4%
I assume the tariffs dominate trading today as more details are coming to attention and first reactions announced. So far, global reactions have been negative by most trading partners of the US.
Also related to US politics, we saw rumors yesterday that Elon Musk may be considering the end of his tenure at Doge, this caused wild swings in Tesla of more than 10%.
Remain on edge and careful with your positions as I expect volatility at any point in time as countermeasures, possible deals and exceptions are being announced. The real impact of any tariffs will only be clear in many months
Remember to top up your Autoinvest accounts as we are looking for the next purchase round on Monday – it looks like we will get a discount on stocks this time.
Thursday, April 3, 2025
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (February): Labour market update for the EU (11:00 AM CET).
- US Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly labour market data (08:30 AM ET).
- US ISM Services PMI: Insights into the service sector's health (10:00 AM ET).
- Andrew Bailey (BoE Governor): Speaking on financial stability and inflation risks at a London forum.
Friday, April 4, 2025
- Germany Industrial Production (February): A measure of industrial activity in Europe’s largest economy (08:00 AM CET).
- US Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (March): The most closely watched labour market report globally (08:30 AM ET).
- Tiff Macklem (BoC Governor): Discussing trade dynamics and monetary policy implications in Toronto.