Market Quick Take - Chips roar back as Nasdaq snaps its skid, BOJ holds - 31 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Trump's Gaza deal and a suspected BOJ intervention frame a busy end to the week.
• Equities: Global equities rebounded sharply as blockbuster technology earnings reignited the artificial intelligence trade, with Asia extending the rally.
• Volatility: Vol unwound sharply as chip-led risk appetite returned; BOJ decision the next test.
• Digital Assets: Miners rallied hard on the broader recovery while spot majors traded little changed overnight.
• Commodities: Crude oil prices consolidate lower ahead of weekend, gold remains rangebound.
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields dropped slightly all along the curve
• Currencies: The dollar consolidated some of Thursday’s steep losses as the yen gave back intervention-driven gains.

Macro

• Trump announced a deal for the full disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, with the territory to be placed under a new Palestinian government, a potential breakthrough after years of conflict.
• Tokyo is suspected of having intervened again to support the yen ahead of today's BOJ decision, after reports of official FX action and a US rate check on dollar-yen quotes; Finance Minister Katayama has signalled readiness to act further, with the yen recently near a 40-year low on high energy costs, fiscal concerns and wide rate differentials. The BOJ held its policy rate at 1.00% with one dissenter favouring a hike to 1.25%. The new policy statement indicated a more confident tone on the Japanese economy, noted concerns of upside risks for inflation and pledged to continue raising borrowing costs.
• Japan's retail sales rose just 0.5% y/y in June, down sharply from May's revised 5.0% and the weakest since February, while month-on-month sales fell 4.1%, the first decline in four months.
• Tokyo core CPI rose 1.9% y/y in July, up from 1.6% and the fastest since January, with the BOJ's preferred core measure (ex fresh food and energy) climbing to 2.0%, its highest in four months and reinforcing the case for June's 25bp hike.
• Real US personal spending rose 0.4% m/m in June, matching May, with goods outlays up 0.7% on autos and energy and services up 0.3%.
• US initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 in the week to 25 July, still below the 200,000 forecast, while continuing claims fell to 1.782 million, the lowest in over a month.
• US core PCE rose just 0.1% m/m in June, below the 0.2% forecast, with the year-on-year rate holding at 3.3%; Q2 GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annualised pace from 2.1%, as business investment cooled and structures contracted, though consumer spending accelerated to 3.2%.
• The Bank of England held its rate at 3.75% on a tighter 6-3 vote than the 7-2 split expected, warning that higher energy prices could push inflation up later this year.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

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Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• BOJ Governor Ueda press conference (Tokyo, this morning), following today's expected rate hold.
• 1230 – US Q2 Employment Cost Index
• 1345 – US July Chicago PMI
• 1400 – US July University of Michigan Sentiment (final)

Earnings events

• Thursday (yesterday): Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Coinbase, Prada
• Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Moderna, Kioxia

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: The S&P 500 jumped 1.7% to 7,437.63 and the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.4%, both snapping a six-day losing streak, while the Dow added 1.2% to 52,208. Microsoft led the advance, soaring 16%, its best day since October 2008, adding a record roughly $450bn in market cap in a single session after Azure growth accelerated to 43% y/y. The optimism spread across the semiconductor sector, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping over 9% as Micron climbed 18.3% and SanDisk surged 26% on renewed enthusiasm for memory demand. After the close Amazon rose around 9% on an AWS beat while Apple fell near 7% on soft iPhone guidance citing component supply shortages.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 added 0.8% to 649.95 on a peak earnings day, led by miners and banks; ASML gained 5.7% and Infineon surged 9.2% on the DAX (+0.6% to 25,612). Schneider Electric jumped 11% after raising guidance and Rolls-Royce added 6% on a second outlook upgrade, while Sanofi lagged. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to 10,897, pulling back from a fresh intraday record, as AstraZeneca fell 3.2% and Rentokil tumbled over 20%.
• Asia: Chip names are driving a sharp Friday rebound, with the Kospi opening roughly 14% higher near 6,370 and SK Hynix and Samsung both up more than 20%, clawing back part of a three-day selloff that had taken the index some 40% off its June peak. The Nikkei 225 is up 5% to near 64,900 and the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index is up around 1.5%, with Nasdaq-100 futures extending gains roughly 0.7-0.8% in Asian trade.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 17.09 | VIX FUTURES: 18.60 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: MODERATE (139.90) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING (MIXED SIGNALS) | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• A chip-led rebound, Microsoft's 16% single-day surge and Amazon's cloud beat, snapped the Nasdaq's six-day losing streak and carried into a record Asian session, with the Kospi opening roughly 14% higher. VIX fell 17.3% to 17.09 and VIX1D dropped 27.3% to 14.14 as this week's correction scare unwound.
• The curve held in contango (VIX9D 14.85, VIX3M 19.50, VIX1Y 23.12), SKEW moderate at 139.90 and MOVE up 3.9% to 77.09. SPXW prices a 50-point (0.68%) move into today's 0DTE expiry and 143 points (1.91%) into next Friday's, with the BOJ's Ueda press conference the next catalyst.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,372 -0.5% | ETHEREUM ~1,909 -0.4% | IBIT 36.70 +1.9% | ETHA 14.51 +1.9% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Miners led digital assets higher on the broader risk-on tone, with Iren up 30.5%, Cifr up 28.1% and Riot up 21.3%, while Coinbase added 2.2% and MicroStrategy 4.7%. Spot bitcoin and ether slipped modestly overnight even as the equity rally accelerated.
• The SEC's Regulation Crypto agenda targets a formal rulemaking proposal this month covering crypto asset offerings and broker-dealer custody standards, while Senate advocacy groups continue pushing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. See Saxo's pricing overview for the costs and applicable charges on IBIT and ETHA.

Commodities

• October Brent dropped toward USD 85.0 early Friday after Thursday’s high above USD 89 per barrel and September WTI traded near USD 81.60, still on pace for a large monthly advance as the US-Iran conflict continues to strain shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; the White House has floated extending measures such as the Jones Act waiver to keep downward pressure on prices.
• Gold eased back below USD 4,100, remaining in 3,950-4,200 range established over the last six weeks.
• Copper held firm above USD 6.5 per lb. in the front US future contract after Thursday’s strong advance from 6.30 the prior day.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields eased lower all along the curve overnight in Friday’s Asian session after the sharp steepening move in reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The benchmark 2-year yield drifted back toward 4.23%, down two basis points, while the benchmark 10-year yield dropped two basis points to near 4.65% and the 30-year yield drifted further away from its 19-year high posted after the FOMC meeting (intraday high of 5.24%), trading near 5.19% early Friday.
• Real-money accounts including Schroders, which oversees over $1 trillion, have flagged growing bearish Treasury positioning, rotating into front-end government bonds in Australia, the UK and the eurozone on doubts over the Fed's inflation control under new chair Warsh; a recent Japanese 2-year JGB auction also drew softer demand than its 12-month average as rate-hike expectations weigh on shorter-dated paper.

Currencies

• The dollar consolidated some of Thursday’s steep losses late Thursday and early Friday after signs of massive USDJPY intervention took USDJPY from above 163.50 to as low as 158.00 at one point, the largest intraday move at over 3% since late 2023. The pair consolidated back above 160.50 in Asian trading hours Friday and over the release of the Bank of Japan’s new statement, which might be dubbed a “hawkish hold” (see more above).
• EURUSD rallied above 1.1500 Thursday and held above that level into early European trading hours Friday, underpinned by stronger Eurozone Q2 GDP.
• The Bank of England meeting produced little reaction for sterling, which firmed slightly after an initial selloff after Bank of England governor Bailey said that the MPC is not getting closer to a rate hike. The market slightly lowered the odds of a rate hike at the BoE’s September meeting .
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis