The Saxo Weekly Market Compass
24 November 2025 (recap week of 17–21 November 2025)

Where markets have been — and where they’re heading.

Headlines & introduction

Global markets had a choppy week as delayed US data, AI valuation fears and rising Japanese yields unsettled sentiment. US equities swung sharply around Nvidia’s earnings, while European markets suffered their heaviest weekly decline since early in the year, with tech and defence at the centre of the storm. The AI theme remained dominant but increasingly polarised between believers and sceptics, and crypto stayed under pressure as ETF outflows accelerated.

Market pulse: a nervous week where macro noise and AI fatigue kept risk appetite on a short leash.

Equities

AI correction hits Wall Street as local European indices wobble but hold key levels
US equities saw large intraday swings, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq under pressure as investors questioned how long AI capex can stay this strong. Nvidia’s earnings initially sparked a relief rally, but by 20 November the Nasdaq 100 was down around 2.4%, with AMD, Micron and other AI hardware names hit hard.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell about 2.2% for the week to 562.1, its steepest weekly drop since mid-year, as tech and defence dragged. Yet local benchmarks proved relatively resilient: the AEX ended Friday near 927, off recent highs but still close to record territory, while Belgium’s BEL 20 held just below 5,000 after a volatile week. Sweden’s OMXS30 also finished the week slightly lower, with Nokia and other local names underperforming as AI sentiment cooled.

Sector-wise, European tech and capital-goods names swung sharply around Nvidia’s report: ASML, Schneider Electric and Siemens Energy rallied on Thursday but gave back gains as AI-bubble worries resurfaced. Defence stocks faced a separate headwind, with Rheinmetall, Leonardo and Saab sliding after headlines on a potential Ukraine peace framework prompted profit-taking in a sector that has doubled since 2022.

Market pulse: local European indices bent but didn’t break, even as AI and defence leaders absorbed most of the damage.

Volatility

VIX flare-up signals stress, but not yet a full-blown risk-off regime
Equity swings translated into higher volatility, with the VIX rising from the low-20s at the start of the week toward the mid-20s and briefly touching above 26 on 20 November as the S&P 500 sold off. Short-tenor measures such as VIX1D and VIX9D moved more aggressively, underscoring demand for tactical hedges around Nvidia, data releases and shifting Fed messaging.

By Friday, volatility eased back toward the low-20s as US indices recovered part of their losses and Europe stabilised from intraday lows. Implied weekly SPX moves remained elevated, suggesting options markets still price roughly ±2% swings rather than a return to summer calm.

Market pulse: volatility is elevated but contained, pointing to repricing rather than panic.

Digital assets

ETF outflows deepen the crypto drawdown despite signs of miner accumulation
Crypto markets extended their correction. Bitcoin slipped from the low-90k area early in the week to below USD 86k by 20 November, pressured by heavy outflows from US spot ETFs. One session alone saw almost USD 900m in net redemptions, led by IBIT, as risk appetite deteriorated. Ethereum fell below USD 2,800, with ETHA continuing to see negative flows, while major alt-coins such as solana and XRP traded defensively.

On-chain data pointed to some accumulation by larger mining entities later in the week, but this wasn’t yet enough to offset institutional derisking. The broader tone stayed macro-driven, with crypto trading more like a high-beta expression of global liquidity and AI risk sentiment than a separate asset class.

Market pulse: buyers are selective and defensive, waiting for clearer macro and flow signals before re-engaging in size.

Fixed income

US yields edge lower as Fed rhetoric tilts slightly more cautious
US Treasuries spent most of the week in risk-off mode. Early selling on stronger data and AI enthusiasm gave way to renewed buying as Fed officials emphasised rising labour-market risks and the drag from higher real yields. By Friday, the 10-year yield hovered just above 4.0% and the 2-year near 3.5%, close to multi-week lows and consistent with growing expectations of a December cut.

In Europe, core yields moved in sympathy but with less conviction as investors weighed softer risk assets against persistent inflation and fiscal dynamics. JGBs were the outlier: the 10-year yield briefly approached 1.85%, its highest level since before the financial crisis, before pulling back on talk of fiscal support and continued BoJ caution.

Market pulse: bonds are leaning toward a slower-growth, easier-policy narrative, but without fully pricing a deep cutting cycle.

Commodities

Energy remains under pressure while gold holds firm near key support
Commodities painted a cautious picture. Oil prices drifted lower as markets focused on softer global demand, elevated inventories and talk of progress in Ukraine peace efforts that could reduce geopolitical risk premia in energy. European energy equities underperformed in tandem, adding to the drag from weaker indices overall.

Industrial metals were mixed, with copper holding above key technical levels but failing to break higher amid uncertain Chinese demand. Gold traded in a relatively tight range around USD 4,000–4,100, supported by lower real yields and hedging demand, even as near-term inflation data remained noisy due to delayed releases.

Market pulse: commodities reflect a world that’s still nervous about growth and geopolitics, but not yet in full risk-off mode.

Currencies

JPY swings dominate an otherwise range-bound FX landscape
FX markets were comparatively calm, with the dollar largely range-bound against most majors despite equity volatility. The main action was in the yen: USDJPY pushed higher early in the week as Japanese yields climbed, then reversed as talk of a sizeable fiscal package and BoJ-watcher commentary suggested a slower pace of normalisation.

In Europe, the euro traded sideways despite the sharp equity sell-off, while sterling firmed modestly ahead of this week’s UK budget announcement. Commodity currencies such as NOK and AUD softened on weaker risk sentiment and lower energy prices, although moves remained moderate compared to earlier in the year.

Market pulse: FX is signalling adjustment rather than stress, with JPY the main pressure valve for shifting yield expectations.

Key takeaways

• AI-linked volatility drove sharp swings in US and European equities.
• The STOXX 600 fell about 2.2% on the week, while AEX, BEL 20 and OMXS30 slipped but stayed near key levels.
• VIX briefly spiked above 26 before easing toward the low-20s.
• Bitcoin dropped below USD 86k amid nearly USD 900m in ETF outflows.
• US yields edged lower as markets leaned further toward a December Fed cut.
• Energy underperformed; gold held near support, reflecting cautious but not panicked positioning.

Looking ahead (week of 24–28 November 2025)

Shortened US week, heavy data and key earnings into year-end positioning

The coming Thanksgiving week is shorter, but still dense with information. In the US, the delayed September retail sales report on Tuesday will be scrutinised as a guide to consumer resilience heading into the holiday season, alongside the Producer Price Index, business inventories and housing indicators such as Case-Shiller and pending home sales. Wednesday brings weekly jobless claims, durable-goods orders and consumer confidence, all important for gauging whether recent labour softness is feeding into broader demand. Several other releases, including Q3 GDP and the October PCE inflation report, remain delayed after the government shutdown, keeping the Fed’s data picture unusually fuzzy into its 10 December meeting.

On the earnings side, attention shifts from megacap AI to a more cyclical, globally diversified mix. Updates from Deere, Dell Technologies, Alibaba, HP, Autodesk, Workday and Zscaler will offer read-throughs on agricultural machinery, PC and server demand, Chinese e-commerce and enterprise software budgets. For European and local investors, these results will help gauge how tight corporate IT and capex budgets are into 2026, and whether the AI spend cycle is broadening beyond hyperscalers or starting to encounter constraint.

Liquidity dynamics also matter this week. US stock markets are closed Thursday and operate on reduced hours Friday, while fixed-income markets also close early, typically amplifying intraday swings around data surprises and earnings headlines. For active traders, that argues for disciplined position sizing and clear stop-loss levels; for long-term investors, it’s an environment to focus on fundamental trends rather than short-term noise.

In Europe and local markets, investors will watch whether last week’s sharp decline in the STOXX 600, AEX, BEL 20 and OMXS30 stabilises or extends, particularly in tech and defence. Any further progress on Ukraine peace talks could keep pressure on defence names such as Rheinmetall, Leonardo and Saab, while a resilient US consumer and stable yields would support exporters and quality growth names.

Market pulse: despite the holiday, this is a data- and earnings-heavy week that could sharpen the rate-cut narrative and set positioning into year-end.

Conclusion

The past week showed how sensitive markets remain to a narrow set of themes: AI valuations, patchy data and shifting expectations for central banks. Local European indices came under pressure but held important levels, even as sector leadership rotated away from prior winners like tech and defence. Crypto continued to act as a leveraged proxy on global liquidity, and bonds moved cautiously toward a softer-growth view without fully pricing an aggressive cutting cycle.

The week ahead won’t resolve every question, but it should bring clearer signals on the US consumer, corporate spending and the Fed’s room for manoeuvre. For now, the balance between opportunity and risk still favours selectivity, diversification and disciplined risk management over broad, momentum-driven exposure.