Weekly market recap & what's ahead

11 August 2025 (recap week of 4 to 8 August 2025)

Headlines & introduction

Tech optimism clashes with tariff tension
It was a week where markets had to juggle optimism and caution in equal measure. Wall Street found fresh energy from tech heavyweights and bold corporate investment plans, but the mood was never far from the shadow of Donald Trump’s next tariff announcement. Central banks made their presence felt too — the Bank of England cut rates in a split vote, while rate cut expectations for the Fed climbed on softer data. Europe was buoyed by earnings beats, Japan rallied on tariff relief, and volatility steadily ebbed away. Crypto found new life on ETF inflows and regulatory clarity, while gold traders were left scratching their heads after a surprise US import tariff upended market pricing.

Market pulse: Confidence was building, but politics kept investors on their toes.

Equities

Tech steals the show, but tariffs clip wings
In the US, the week began with a burst of relief buying (Aug 4) as soft jobs data revived hopes for a September Fed cut, sending the S&P 500 up 1.47% and the Nasdaq 1.95%. By mid-week (Aug 6–7), the tone turned outright bullish, led by Apple’s $100bn domestic investment pledge and a 5% surge in its stock. Arista Networks jumped over 17% on strong results, while McDonald’s added 3%. But it wasn’t one-way traffic — AMD slid 6% and Disney fell 2.7% on earnings disappointments. The week closed with a mixed session (Aug 8), as new tariffs on India and speculation over the next Fed chair tempered enthusiasm.

In Europe, solid earnings from banks, insurers, and industrials pushed indices higher across the week. Novo Nordisk soared after a rival’s obesity drug data fell short, while Siemens and Allianz also impressed. UK equities were a tale of two halves — the FTSE 100 broke records mid-week on Smith & Nephew’s 15% rally, but Friday’s BoE rate cut knocked the index lower, with exporters under pressure as sterling jumped.

Asia’s story was dominated by Japan, where tariff “overlap” issues were resolved, giving exporters and markets a lift. The TOPIX hit a record above 3,000, helped by strong earnings from SoftBank and Sony. Elsewhere, China and Hong Kong traded cautiously ahead of the August 12 US–China tariff truce deadline.

Market pulse: Buyers stayed active but kept one hand near the exit door.

Volatility

From fear spike to calm waters
As equities found their footing, volatility followed suit. From 17.52 on Monday, the VIX slid to 16.57 by Friday, with short-term measures like the VIX1D seeing even sharper drops. Early in the week, options priced in daily S&P 500 swings of about ±70 points; by Friday that had narrowed to ±35 points. Hedge demand fell away, with investors pulling cash from VIX-linked ETFs.

Market pulse: The calm was welcome, but no one’s forgetting how fast it can vanish.

Digital assets

ETF inflows and legal clarity lift crypto mood
The calmer backdrop extended to crypto, where prices pushed higher. Bitcoin hovered in the $114k–$116k range before closing near $116k, while Ethereum climbed from about $3,640 to just under $3,900. ETHA saw heavy buying early on, IBIT clawed back from outflows, and miners enjoyed a rebound. Regulatory and legal news added fuel: the SEC dropped its appeal in the Ripple case, and US authorities eased up on some staking rules.

Market pulse: Traders felt the tide turning — and were keen to catch the wave.

Fixed income

Yields edge up ahead of inflation test
While risk assets rallied, bonds took a more cautious turn. US 2-year yields rose from 3.66% to 3.75%, while 10-year yields climbed from 4.20% to 4.28%, driven by weak Treasury auctions and anticipation of CPI and PPI data. In Europe, German Bund yields edged up to 2.69% after poor industrial output figures.

Market pulse: Positioning was careful — the real action awaits the inflation print.

Commodities

Gold shock, oil slide, metals shine
Commodities brought their own drama. Gold grabbed headlines after a surprise US decision to tariff 1kg bars sent New York futures prices soaring relative to London spot, widening the premium by $60 in just a week. Spot gold itself stayed near $3,400, capped below $3,450. Oil prices slid roughly 5% on rising OPEC+ supply and hopes for a Trump–Putin peace deal. Industrial metals and silver gained, and lithium spiked after CATL halted output at a major Chinese mine.

Market pulse: A week where gold traders were rattled, oil bears had the upper hand, and metals bulls enjoyed the spotlight.

Currencies

Sterling surges on BoE dissent, dollar drifts lower
The US dollar softened across the week, helping EURUSD edge toward 1.1670. Sterling staged a strong rally after the BoE’s split rate cut decision, pushing EURGBP toward 0.87 and GBPUSD above 1.33. The Japanese yen weakened later in the week as risk sentiment improved, while the Aussie dollar marked time ahead of the RBA’s expected rate cut.

Market pulse: Sterling took centre stage, with the dollar content to play a quieter role.

Key takeaways

• Apple’s $100bn US investment powered tech gains; tariffs kept traders on edge.
• VIX fell into the mid-teens; options markets priced in smaller daily swings.
• Crypto rallied on ETF inflows, legal wins, and policy clarity.
• Yields rose ahead of US inflation data; European bonds followed suit.
• Gold premiums spiked on US import tariffs; oil slid on supply and geopolitics.
• USD weakened; GBP surged after BoE’s split decision.

Looking ahead (11–15 August 2025)

Next week’s focus is squarely on inflation. CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday could cement September Fed cut expectations — or derail them. Earnings from Cisco, CoreWeave, Applied Materials, Deere, and Circle will provide sector-specific catalysts, especially in AI, infrastructure, and crypto. Fed officials Barkin, Goolsbee, and Bostic are set to speak, and geopolitics will heat up with the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska on Friday. UK traders will watch GDP, trade, and production data, while crypto eyes turn to Circle’s results for clues on stablecoin adoption.

Market pulse: A quiet close last week leaves the stage wide open for a headline-driven week ahead.