Weekly Market Recap & What's Ahead

25 March 2025 (Week of 17 to 21 March 2025)

Key Takeaways

• Equities: Equities volatile with tech under pressure; tariff uncertainty persists.
• Volatility: VIX peaked midweek at 21.70, easing later but caution remains.
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin sees renewed ETF inflows; XRP surges post-SEC lawsuit resolution.
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields fluctuate on Fed dovish signals; Bund yields drop after German fiscal package.
• Commodities: Gold sets new records, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears.
• Currencies: USD firms ahead of Trump's tariff announcements; EURUSD pulls back.

Market Recap (17 to 21 March 2025)

Equities

• US: US equities faced volatility with tech struggling amid valuation and recession concerns. Notable moves included Tesla dropping -4.8% on Mar 17 and -5.3% on Mar 18, Nvidia down -3.4% on Mar 18, and Boeing rallying +6.8% on Mar 19. FedEx and Nike both fell sharply post-earnings (-6.45% and -5.46%, respectively, Mar 21).
• Europe: European stocks initially rose on Germany's historic €500B infrastructure plan (Mar 18, DAX +1%), but retreated sharply late week due to ECB tariff warnings (Mar 21, DAX -1.2%). Banks and industrials underperformed, notably Intesa Sanpaolo and BNP Paribas down -3% on Mar 21.
• Asia: Asian markets surged early week on AI optimism, notably Baidu +10% on Mar 17. Later mixed, with profit-taking in tech stocks dragging Hang Seng lower (-2.2% on Mar 21).

Volatility

VIX volatility spiked notably midweek to 21.70 on Mar 18 ahead of the Fed decision. It eased sharply after Powell’s dovish comments, closing at 19.28 on Mar 21, though short-term uncertainty remains heightened ahead of tariff announcements.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin fluctuated around $82,000–$86,944, supported by ETF inflows hitting a six-week high ($274.6M on Mar 17). XRP surged +7.3% on Mar 19 after the SEC ended its lawsuit against Ripple. Crypto stocks showed mixed performance, with Coinbase notably up +4.8% on Mar 19 but retreating later.

Fixed Income

US Treasury yields softened midweek following the Fed’s dovish signals, with the 10-year yield settling around 4.25% on Mar 21. German Bund yields dropped sharply (-6bps to 2.82% on Mar 17) amid optimism about Germany's large-scale fiscal stimulus.

Commodities

Gold set multiple new records, peaking above $3,055/oz on Mar 19, driven by inflation fears and geopolitical tensions. Copper surged above $5.20/lb on Mar 19, influenced by tariff-driven supply disruptions. Crude fluctuated, impacted by Middle East tensions and sanctions risks, trading near $70/bbl late week.

Currencies

USD strengthened late in the week ahead of tariff clarity expected on April 2, with EURUSD retreating below 1.0850 on Mar 21. JPY strengthened modestly post-FOMC, with USDJPY trading around 148.25 on Mar 20.

Looking Ahead (24 to 28 March 2025)

Investors face key macro data and earnings:

• Mon: S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI, KB Home and Oklo earnings.
• Tue: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales; GameStop, McCormick earnings.
• Wed: Durable Goods Orders; earnings from Dollar Tree, Chewy, Paychex.
• Thu: GDP (Q4 revision), Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales; Lululemon earnings.
• Fri: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, Consumer Sentiment; remarks from Fed’s Raphael Bostic.

Markets remain cautious, particularly around inflation, housing data, Fed speeches, and ongoing tariff developments, with investors closely monitoring any shifts in economic indicators that could signal broader economic headwinds or influence central bank policies.

For more related content about last week's event, see:
Market Quick Take - 24 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 21 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 20 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 19 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 18 March 2025