Venezuela is probably just the start. Market shrugs, though US oil majors cheer.

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Today’s Links

I forgot to mention this one on the podcast today - an article pointing out the important differences in the Waymo versus Tesla approach to autonomous driving, possibly suggesting that Tesla’s approach is the superior one (not in the sensors, but in the AI approach). I have often poked fun at the Tesla self-driving effort (at least relative to that of others and to how the market is pricing it, though I try to stay somewhat objective and have also discussed the maths of self-driving vehicle earnings, which are pretty compelling if they can be scaled, but more importantly, if competition isn’t brutal and means it becomes commodified.)

Tracy Shuchart, aka Chigirl with a long Substack on the reasons behind the US regime change operation in Venezuela, covering as well the possible rare earth angle that I hadn’t seen covered elsewhere yet.

And here is Michael McNair weighing in on the Cuba angle as Cuba faces an energy crisis within weeks due to is now former dependence on Venezuelan imports.

That “silver smelter” story (HT: MichaelEvery)  I discussed on today's pod is yet another example of the US Department of Defense moving to secure critical materials - in this case zinc - and with the National Bank of the USA, uh… JP Morgan… involved in the financing.

Chart of the Day - Prior knowledge is a wonderful thing….

As noted on today’s pod, it was very interesting to note that massive ramp in oil-services companies, particularly SLB on Friday amidst a lack of news (chart below - formerly Schlumberger, which is what I called it on the podcast). With 20-20 hindsight, this raises strong suspicion of insider knowledge. With the SEC on a permanent lite touch holiday, this kind of thing might be something that operators in the market can use to suss out signals for advance knowledge that something is afoot for a given company or sector or the market at large. Anyway, my little ChatGPT query after the Saturday Venezuelan regime decapitation move on SLB/Schlumberger’s past and current activities in Venezuela revealed the following nuggets: 1) It used to be one of the company’s “flagship” countries, having operated there since the 1930’s. 2) By the early 2020’s, the company’s operations there had essentially collapsed, with mothballed assets and merely an office to maintain a presence. If US oil companies do eventually go full throttle in reinvesting in the country, based on historic presence and the expertise for specific fields, SLB looks like it is first in line of the services majors for significant contracts. The shares are up another 9% pre-market today.