Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Saxo Group
Whether markets are reaching new highs or experiencing sharp declines, investors often face a tough decision—should you jump in now, wait for conditions to improve, or hold off for a potential pullback? The fear of "buying at the wrong time" is real, but waiting can also mean returns depend on a later entry point. Instead of trying to time the market, some investors use DCA to spread entry points over time.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy where you divide your total investment amount into smaller, regular contributions over time. Rather than investing a lump sum all at once, you invest the same fixed amount on a regular schedule, regardless of market fluctuations. However, it does not guarantee a lower average cost or better returns than investing a lump sum.
By consistently investing, DCA can spread the timing of purchases across different market prices. Depending on the broker and product, investors may buy whole or fractional shares, purchasing more when prices are low and fewer when prices are high, resulting in an average purchase price across the investment period.
To understand how DCA works, consider this simplified example:
Imagine you have USD 12,000 to invest in a stock or an exchange-traded fund (ETF). Instead of investing the entire amount immediately, you decide to invest USD 1,000 each month for 12 months.
The following example assumes that only whole shares can be purchased. Any cash left over after each purchase is carried forward to the next month. It also excludes transaction costs, taxes, currency conversion costs, bid-ask spreads and dividends:
| Month | Share Price (USD) | Monthly contribution + cash carried over (USD) | Whole shares purchased | Cost of shares bought (USD) | Cash carried forward (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100 | 1,000 | 10 | 1,000 | 0 |
| 2 | 95 | 1,000 | 10 | 950 | 50 |
| 3 | 90 | 1,050 | 11 | 990 | 60 |
| 4 | 105 | 1,060 | 10 | 1,050 | 10 |
| 5 | 110 | 1,010 | 9 | 990 | 20 |
| 6 | 100 | 1,020 | 10 | 1,000 | 20 |
| 7 | 98 | 1,020 | 10 | 980 | 40 |
| 8 | 95 | 1,040 | 10 | 950 | 90 |
| 9 | 90 | 1,090 | 12 | 1,080 | 10 |
| 10 | 85 | 1,010 | 11 | 935 | 75 |
| 11 | 88 | 1,075 | 12 | 1,056 | 19 |
| 12 | 92 | 1,019 | 11 | 1,012 | 7 |
If you had invested the full USD 12,000 at the start of the year when the share price was USD 100, you would have purchased 120 shares, excluding any costs.
In this specific price path, DCA results in more shares and a lower average purchase price because the share price falls below the starting price for much of the period. In a different market path, especially if prices rose steadily, DCA could result in fewer shares or a higher average purchase price than investing the full amount upfront. The example shows how DCA spreads purchases over time, not that it produces a better outcome in every market.
DCA offers a systematic approach to investing across various market conditions. Common reasons include:
DCA may be useful for investors who want to spread entry points across different market conditions, making it particularly valuable in the following scenarios:
DCA is versatile and can be effectively applied to both stocks and ETFs, although suitability depends on the investor’s objectives, time horizon and product choice.
Like any investment strategy, DCA has strengths and limitations:
A common debate among investors is whether to invest a lump sum all at once or to stagger investments using DCA. Some studies have found that lump-sum investing has often outperformed DCA over certain historical periods, particularly when markets rise during the investment period. However, DCA may help manage timing risk and make the investment process feel more manageable for some investors. If market volatility or timing concerns make you anxious, DCA allows you to gain market exposure gradually. It may reduce the risk of investing the full amount immediately before a downturn, but it does not prevent losses if markets fall.
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