Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Saxo Group
Many people reach a point where the pressure of full-time work starts to feel heavier than it used to. The days stretch longer, the recovery time gets shorter, and the idea of waiting decades for a calmer life seems unfair. That tension creates frustration; you’ve built savings, worked hard, and made careful choices, but the freedom you imagined still feels distant.
A growing number of people try to ease that pressure by seeking a middle path where their lives can slow down while their savings still have room to grow. This is where the idea behind Barista FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) appears: a strategy that offers more hours for yourself, less strain on your savings, and a gentler shift away from traditional full-time work.
Barista FIRE is a financial independence strategy in which you step away from full-time work while continuing to earn part-time income to cover a portion of your living costs. Your savings already sit at a level where they can support you more in future, and the reduced workload lightens your days without forcing you into complete retirement. The strategy name comes from the idea of taking a simple, low-stress job that still offers some benefits, though the exact role can vary widely from person to person.
The way the strategy works is straightforward. Your part-time income covers recurring expenses such as rent, food, transport, and healthcare contributions. At the same time, your investments are intended to grow in the background while you keep your withdrawals low, giving your money more time to compound, although their value can also fall and returns are not guaranteed. This combination lowers the financial pressure of early retirement and creates a slower, more manageable rhythm. Some people choose familiar roles; others prefer flexible or quieter work, but the goal stays the same: an income that aims to support a more laid-back lifestyle while limiting how much you need to draw on long-term savings.
A clear Barista FIRE plan often starts with understanding how much money you need before shifting into part-time work. The calculation focuses on three things:
A helpful first step is to estimate your total annual expenses. Housing, food, transport, insurance contributions, and personal costs all belong here. The next step is to subtract the amount you expect to earn from part-time work. The remaining figure represents the yearly amount your savings need to support through modest withdrawals.
Consider this simple example to make the formula clearer:
Imagine your yearly costs total EUR 40,000, and you plan to earn EUR 18,000 from part-time work. You would need your savings to support the remaining EUR 22,000.
Many people use a 3–4% withdrawal range as a general guide, though the right rate depends on your circumstances and market conditions and does not guarantee that your savings will last for a specific period. If we assume 3.5%, the target portfolio would be: 22,000 ÷ 0.035 = EUR 628,571.
Barista FIRE and Coast FIRE strategies belong to the same family of early-retirement approaches, yet they rely on different financial mechanics. Barista FIRE uses part-time income to support day-to-day expenses, while savings contribute only a portion of what you need.
Coast FIRE works differently. You reach a point where your existing investments are already large enough that, if markets perform as expected, they could grow on their own until traditional retirement age, without requiring further contributions from your salary.
Both approaches appeal to people who want more control over their time, but the suitability depends on your situation. Coast FIRE may be better suited to those who built their savings early and feel comfortable letting compounding do the heavy lifting. Barista FIRE fits those who prefer keeping some active income, either to reduce withdrawal pressure, maintain structure, or cover specific costs while enjoying more flexible hours.
People often consider the Barista FIRE strategy when full-time work no longer matches their energy, but a complete step back feels risky.
Here are the main reasons why Barista FIRE may align with your lifestyle:
Some people enjoy having a schedule, but they no longer want the pressure of a full workweek. Part-time roles create enough routine to feel grounded without draining your energy.
Part-time income can help cover recurring expenses and reduce the psychological weight of drawing from your savings too quickly.
A softer shift into early retirement appeals to people who worry about losing purpose or identity when leaving full-time work abruptly.
In many countries, part-time roles can include employer-supported healthcare contributions, pension credits, or other protections that help you keep your long-term plans stable.
Many people pursuing the Barista FIRE strategy look for work that offers stability without draining them. The goal is to find roles that offer predictable hours, modest income, and a pace that supports a slower lifestyle. The right choice depends on your skills, comfort level, and the lifestyle you want to maintain during semi-retirement.
Here are several part-time roles that can fit well under these conditions:
Jobs in cafés, bookstores, or small shops offer steady hours and social interaction. These positions provide structure without the intensity of full-time corporate work.
Some people prefer to use their existing expertise in a lighter format. Short projects or advisory roles allow you to stay connected to your profession while keeping your schedule flexible.
Language lessons, academic tutoring, or community-based courses can create rewarding work with manageable hours.
Writing, design, editing, or remote administrative tasks give you control over your workload and environment.
Tourism, cultural venues, or event-related jobs provide predictable bursts of activity at certain times of the year, which some people find easier to balance with their lifestyle.
Barista FIRE can seem appealing, but it carries specific risks that deserve attention before making the shift.
Below are some key risks you should keep in mind:
Part-time roles can change quickly. Hours may vary, demand may drop, and employers may adjust staffing with little notice. These changes can affect your ability to cover monthly expenses without increasing withdrawals from your savings.
Part-time contracts may offer fewer protections than full-time positions. Healthcare contributions, pension credits, paid leave, or insurance cover might be reduced or unavailable, depending on your country and employer.
Living costs can change faster than your part-time salary. Even mild inflation affects people who rely on a mix of modest earnings and controlled withdrawals, especially if essential expenses rise unexpectedly.
Savings play a central role in Barista FIRE. Market volatility or long periods of weak growth can put pressure on your portfolio, especially when combined with early withdrawals. This risk becomes more significant if the shift to part-time work happens during a downturn.
Semi-retirement can feel unfamiliar at first. Some people may feel anxiety about reduced income, identity changes, or uncertainty tied to balancing two sources of financial support. The new rhythm takes time to adjust to, particularly if you spent years in structured full-time roles.
Some people reach a point where they feel their life needs more room to feel meaningful. The Barista FIRE strategy can offer that space, but it also comes with new responsibilities and uncertainties.
The strategy softens the pace of work while still asking you to rely on part-time income and steady habits. Anyone considering it may find it helpful to view it as a change that brings relief as well as new challenges. What matters most is being clear about the trade-offs and whether this mix of part-time work and invested savings fits the way you want to live.
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