Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Saxo Group
For decades, retirement felt like a fixed destination: you worked until 65 or 67, collected a pension, maybe a gold watch, and that was the end of the story. But in recent years, a movement has emerged that challenges these traditions and reimagines what retirement and investing strategies can look like.
That movement is FIRE: Financial Independence, Retire Early.
The FIRE movement represents a strategic approach to financial planning that combines aggressive saving and disciplined investing, along with lifestyle hacks. At its heart, FIRE aims to help you accumulate the wealth you need to live the way you want, without traditional employment – and doing it years, if not decades, before you’re “supposed” to retire.
The FIRE acronym itself has an uncertain origin, but many trace the movement’s principles back to the 1992 bestseller “Your Money or Your Life” by Vicki Robin and Joe Dominguez. The book inspired countless readers to rethink their relationship with money and paved the way for the FIRE philosophy that has become so well known.
Before diving into the many flavours of FIRE, it helps to understand the basic building blocks that most followers rely on. While each person’s path looks different, these three principles form the foundation of nearly every FIRE journey.
FIRE practitioners typically save 50-70% of their income. That’s significantly more than the 10-15% financial planners usually recommend. This aggressive approach takes strategic budgeting and optimising your expenses, but it’s the foundation for putting wealth accumulation into high gear.
While every investor is unique, successful FIRE portfolios often have some key features in common, including:
To help in planning, FIRE followers typically use the 4% rule, suggesting that, once they retire, they will withdraw 4% from their savings annually, adjusted to inflation. Some experts recommend a more cautious 3.25-3.5% withdrawal rate for a higher probability of sustaining your portfolio.
The 4% rule also helps establish a wealth accumulation target of 25 to 30 times annual expenses. In other words, you’ll need to save up at least 25 times your annual expenses before you can comfortably withdraw 4% each year after retiring from the workforce.
The traditional FIRE model focuses on accumulating wealth, typically USD 1-2 million, through aggressive saving and traditional investment vehicles. To succeed, this approach takes careful planning and precise expense management.
But FIRE isn’t a one-size-fits-all movement. Today, there are five popular FIRE “flavours”, catering to different lifestyles and different views on financial independence. Some FIRE approaches are more aggressive, some more laid-back.
Fat FIRE investors aim for portfolios worth more than USD 2.5 million, allowing them to enjoy a luxury lifestyle in retirement, while preserving their financial independence.
Plenty of financial cushion; freedom to maintain or even upgrade your lifestyle; strong resilience against unexpected expenses.
Requires very high income or extremely disciplined saving; can take longer to achieve than other FIRE paths.
High earners or those who want comfort and flexibility in retirement without major lifestyle sacrifices.
If you simply want a comfortable lifestyle on the way to early retirement, Chubby FIRE aims at balancing moderate spending with saving and investment. That makes it an ideal trade-off between the Fat and the Lean flavours of FIRE.
Balanced approach; achievable for a wider range of people; allows some indulgences while still prioritising independence.
May still require significant saving and planning; lifestyle choices need to stay intentional and disciplined.
People who want freedom without extreme trade-offs – a balance between comfort today and security tomorrow.
This frugal form of FIRE is focused on minimalism, cutting spending to the bone and saving more of your income, so you can retire on less. So, if you like your lattes and luxuries, this flavour is probably not for you. However, by aggressively cutting out the fat in their lifestyles, Lean FIRE practitioners feel they can retire on a modest USD 500,000 to 750,000.
Can achieve independence sooner; less pressure to accumulate a huge nest egg; aligns well with simple-living values.
Requires strict budgeting; vulnerable to unexpected expenses; little room for lifestyle upgrades.
Minimalists, penny-pinching digital nomads, or those who value time and freedom over material comforts.
This FIRE flavour is all about accumulating investments early on in your career, so that with typical market returns, you’ll have enough to fund retirement without any additional contributions, with the hope that this will help you relax and reduce the need to save later in your working years.
Freedom from high saving rates in your 30s, 40s, and beyond; lets you enjoy more balance in midlife.
Requires aggressive saving and investing early in your career; depends heavily on market performance over time.
Young professionals willing to prioritise saving early to buy more lifestyle flexibility later.
Not everyone wants to lie on the beach when they retire. Barista FIRE is about accumulating enough investments to fund a comfortable retirement, but also choosing to continue working on your own terms – maybe part-time, or maybe at a job that pays less but means more to you. That barista serving you at your favourite cafe? Who knows, they may be financially independent and making cappuccinos purely for the joy of it!
Provides extra income and purpose; reduces strain on your portfolio; offers social engagement and flexibility.
Still requires ongoing work; depends on finding part-time or passion-driven jobs that fit your lifestyle.
Those who want the freedom to downshift rather than fully stop working – enjoying financial independence while staying active and engaged.
Together, these variations show that FIRE is not a rigid formula but a flexible framework. Whether you dream of travelling the world, pursuing creative passions, or simply having more time with family, there’s likely a FIRE path that fits your vision.
For most people, FIRE is aimed squarely at early retirement. Getting there depends on two important activities: aggressive saving and disciplined investing. How much you save from your income is up to you, but the more you save, the more you can invest, and the sooner you’ll potentially be able to leave your working life behind.
And while saving is up to the individual, investing comes with some tried-and-true strategies that need to be followed meticulously if you want to stay on track toward financial independence. FIRE investors need to have a long-term mindset – you want to avoid short-term market moves and keep your focus on sustainable growth.
Investment portfolios may grow with every dollar you put into them – but real growth will only happen if you take the time to optimise those investments. That means regular portfolio rebalancing to align with your strategy as it evolves. How you allocate your assets is your choice, but you should aim to keep your portfolio in line with your goals and risk tolerance.
When putting together a portfolio, investors tend to buy what they know best – familiar names from their home market or a few tech companies they like. That’s easy to do, but your portfolio won’t have the most important key to ensuring long-term stability: diversification.
Diversification means spreading your investment money across a wider range of sectors, industries, regions and asset types, so you’re not too heavily weighted in one asset. That way, if your home market weakens, or those hot tech stocks suddenly turn cold, your other investments can help cushion the blow.
So, how do you get started?
Diversifying with stocks from other countries or sectors can help you protect your portfolio from market volatility, but choosing those stocks can be a real challenge. Not everyone has the time or the market knowledge to do the research needed to find the best mix of global stocks. Thankfully, there’s a simpler way to create a diversified portfolio.
ETFs – short for Exchange Traded Funds – track an index (like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 etc.) sector, commodity, or other asset, and they are traded just like stocks on global exchanges. That makes it relatively easy to get diversified exposure all at once, with one investment instead of multiple investments.
Like any investment instrument, ETF's have their risks, but they are also one of the simpler ways to diversify, which may help lower your portfolio's risk during market volatility. They also tend to have lower costs than other types of investments, which makes them ideal for FIRE strategies. Remember, saving is crucial with FIRE – the more you save, the more you’ll have to invest toward your financial goals.
To reach financial independence faster, it’s important to invest early and consistently. That’s because, over the long term, your investment earnings will generate their own earnings. This snowball effect is called compounding returns, and it’s one of the “secret ingredients” of a robust FIRE strategy.
Compounding returns represent the exponential growth of an investment over time, as your initial investment earns “returns on returns”.
Let’s look at a quick example. If you start investing with USD 1,000 and earn 10% annually, you will generate USD 100 in the first year. But in the second year, you’ll earn a 10% return on USD 1,100 – your principle and the previous year’s return combined – for a total of USD 1,210.
The longer your time horizon, the more compounding can speed up your wealth building. A USD 20,000 investment with an 8% annual return will grow to about USD 43,000 in ten years. Leave it in for 30 years, however, and that same investment would grow to about USD 201,000.
To accelerate the compounding effect, you should add to your investments consistently. Depending on how much you’re saving with your chosen FIRE lifestyle, you could contribute USD 100, 300 or whatever amount you want each month. Today, many banks and brokers have automated monthly savings plans that make it easy to invest consistently. Again, low-cost investments such as ETFs work well – every dollar saved on fees adds to your compounding returns and boosts your portfolio’s long-term FIRE potential.
When you retire, you still want money rolling in every month to maintain your preferred lifestyle. That’s why FIRE practitioners often add investments such as dividend stocks or real estate that bring in passive income to replace their employment income.
Dividend stocks provide you with a reliable income stream, with dividends either paid out in cash or reinvested for you. While the choice of payouts is up to you, FIRE investors often prefer to reinvest the dividend income to help maximise their compound growth.
To get started, look for stocks such as S&P 500 companies that have steadily increased their dividends over the years. While these stocks are not always the high flyers, they offer consistent passive income, help fight inflation and also help keep you afloat when markets are going down – all important benefits if you want your portfolio to keep working for you even after you’ve retired.
FIRE is growing in popularity but it’s not without its challenges. So, before taking the leap into the FIRE movement, it’s best to look ahead and be prepared.
Investing is a crucial part of achieving financial independence, and it’s important to remember that markets can be volatile over time. Extended bear markets or below-average returns can impact your FIRE plans significantly, so you’ll need to manage risk throughout your investing journey.
Don’t rely solely on rising stock values – you’ll need other income streams, such as dividend-paying stocks or real estate investments, to support your FIRE plans if your portfolio doesn’t perform as well as you hoped. Having an emergency fund of three to six months’ worth of expense is also a smart move for FIRE investors – that way, you can cover financial setbacks while staying on track with your savings plan.
Managing risk also means being flexible. You may have to change your spending strategies to adapt to prevailing market conditions. And if you’ve planned your retirement with the 4% annual withdrawal rate in mind, be prepared to change it to something more conservative – 3.25 to 3.5% or even lower to ensure your financial stability.
You could also be flexible about your retirement destination. Wherever you’ve dreamed of retiring, other locations could help you lower your living costs and make your savings go much further. Keep in mind that healthcare cost inflation can potentially exceed general inflation, but healthcare costs vary from country to country. So, being flexible and embracing geographic mobility in retirement can also help you optimise your healthcare costs.
Today’s world is constantly changing, and the FIRE movement is evolving with it. The good news is that most of the changes are making it easier to become a FIRE investor. For example, it’s now commonplace to work remotely, allowing you to work during retirement from anywhere in the world with lower living costs.
Investing itself is being transformed. Technology continues to reduce the cost of investing – letting you save more – while new alternative investment vehicles give investors more options when building a diversified portfolio.
But keep in mind that economic conditions are also changing constantly, so it’s important to revisit your retirement calculations regularly. The last thing you want as a FIRE follower is to plan for a financial future that’s no longer available.
Financial independence doesn’t just happen – it takes careful planning. But where do you start? Try these four short-term actions first:
Longer-term planning is also a must for serious FIRE investors. You’ll need to stay up to date with the markets and review your portfolio regularly to ensure it’s in sync with your strategy – if it isn’t, you’ll need to rebalance. Today, there’s a large and growing FIRE community online, sharing strategies and investing insights – so, if you need help with your FIRE planning, you can avoid financial advisor fees and tap into the wisdom of the crowd instead.
The FIRE movement is young, but it’s already challenging long-held ideas about retirement planning and investment strategy. Investors are drawn to FIRE by its potential to accelerate the journey to financial independence, turning it from a dream into a goal that can be achieved with careful planning, disciplined investing and constant adaptation to changing market conditions.
Critics point out that, in spite of FIRE’s popularity, very few people are actually reaching the goal of early retirement. In fact, the retirement age is on the rise, with many people continuing to work until their late 60’s. That’s not quite the early retirement envisioned by most FIRE followers. Those same critics also question whether FIRE’s emphasis on aggressive saving is realistic for those already on a budget.
While these questions are valid, FIRE is evolving to include more investors and more approaches. The movement’s basic principles, challenges and strategies provide a strong foundation for making informed decisions and investing with discipline.
At its core, FIRE is for anyone who wants to look for their own path to financial independence. It can also be looked at as an inspiring mindset and alternative lifestyle choice. FIRE shows us that investing traditions can be challenged and that retirement doesn’t have to be the end of a story. It can be a beginning.
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