Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Saxo Group
Everyone has heard of gold, but not everyone knows how to trade it. If you’re just starting out, think of this guide as a friendly map: what can nudge the price up or down, the different ways you can get exposure, and the upsides and risks to watch so there are no big surprises.
The gold price is shaped by a mix of macroeconomic, monetary and market-specific factors. Some drivers — like US real yields and the dollar — affect price through opportunity cost and currency effects, while others — such as central-bank buying or geopolitical risk — change demand directly. Understanding these channels helps traders and investors choose the right product and risk controls.
Gold does not pay interest. When real interest rates (nominal yields minus expected inflation) rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases and the price often faces headwinds; when real yields fall, the opposite can occur. The US Federal Reserve’s policy path strongly influences real yields across the curve.
Gold is priced globally in US dollars. When the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive in other currencies, which can reduce non-US demand and push the USD gold price down; when the dollar weakens, the opposite can happen and demand may push prices up. As a result, gold and the dollar often move in opposite directions (an “inverse” relationship), though this isn’t guaranteed every time.
Many central banks hold gold as a reserve asset (part of the money they keep to back their currency and meet international obligations), because gold held outright as no issuers (so no credit risk), and minimal counterparty risk. Credit risk is the chance an issuer fails to repay you; counterparty risk is the chance the other party in a transaction (for example, a bank or custodian) fails to deliver. When the official sector is a net buyer (buying more than it sells), that steady demand can support prices; when it is a net seller (selling more than it buys), the extra supply can weigh on prices. These are general tendencies rather than hard rules.
During stress or uncertainty, investors often seek perceived safe‑haven assets. Geopolitical shocks and sudden changes in risk appetite can lift gold demand, sometimes only temporarily.
Upside inflation surprises may support gold if they push real yields lower; downside growth surprises can do the same if they lead markets to expect easier policy.
Futures, options and ETF flows can amplify moves. Positioning that becomes crowded can increase the risk of sharp reversals.
There are multiple ways to gain exposure to gold, each with different costs, liquidity profiles and risk characteristics. Physical gold offers direct ownership but higher storage and transaction costs; ETFs/ETCs give cost-efficient spot exposure; miners and mining ETFs add equity style risk; futures, CFDs and options provide leveraged, short-term exposure and require robust risk management.
Here’s a quick side‑by‑side look at the upsides and the risks. Use it to decide whether — and how — gold fits into your portfolio.
Now that you understand some of the main factors that influence gold, you need to figure out if it’s a commodity that is right for you. Start with three basics: your time horizon, risk tolerance and objectives. Gold can diversify a portfolio, but it can also experience long drawdowns and sharp swings. When leverage is involved, position sizes are often kept modest, stop loss levels are set in line with a plan, and it’s important to understand how margin and funding work on the platform. Total costs — spreads, fees, storage or financing — can add up and affect returns; the product documentation explains how these charges apply.
Markets change, and confidence can grow with knowledge. Always keep learning as much as you can about investing and trading, so you can make the most informed decisions to help you reach your financial goals.