Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Saxo Group
Bonds might seem complex at first glance, but they are often considered more straightforward than some other investments. They may provide income and may help diversify some portfolios, although bond prices can still fall and issuers can default. Like any financial concept, bonds become clearer as you learn more.
So let’s explore what bonds are, how they work, and how they may fit into a diversified investment strategy.
Bonds are fixed-income securities that function as loans made by an investor to a borrower, typically a corporation or government. When you purchase a bond, you essentially lend money to the issuer in exchange for periodic interest payments and the return of the bond's face value, or principal, at maturity, provided the issuer meets its obligations.
When a government, corporation, or municipality issues a bond, it promises to pay back the borrowed amount on a specific date while making periodic interest payments to the bondholder. Unlike stocks, which represent equity ownership in a company, bonds are a form of debt.
This means bondholders are creditors to the issuer and have a higher claim on assets than shareholders in the event of liquidation.
For example, if you purchase a government bond with a face value of USD 1,000, a 5% coupon rate, and a maturity of 10 years, the bond is scheduled to pay USD 50 annually, or USD 25 semi-annually, and return the USD 1,000 face value at maturity, assuming the issuer meets its obligations and before any taxes, fees or currency effects.
Bonds come in various forms, each with distinct characteristics, risk levels, and potential roles in a portfolio. Understanding these differences may help investors compare how different bonds fit their objectives and risk tolerance:
Issued by national governments, government bonds are often viewed as lower risk when the issuer is highly rated, but risk varies by country, currency, maturity and bond type. Examples include U.S. Treasury bonds and sovereign bonds from other countries. They may provide regular income, but their prices can still fall and repayment depends on the issuer’s ability to meet its obligations.
These are issued by local governments to fund public projects. They may offer tax advantages in some jurisdictions (for example, certain municipal bonds in the US can have tax-exempt interest), but rules vary by country and investor. General obligation bonds are backed by the issuing government's taxing power, while revenue bonds are repaid from project-specific revenue.
Issued by companies to raise capital, corporate bonds typically offer higher yields than highly rated government bonds because they carry company-specific credit risk. Investment-grade bonds are issued by companies considered by rating agencies to have lower credit risk, while high-yield bonds carry higher credit risk and usually offer higher yields to compensate investors for that risk.
Issued by government-affiliated organisations, these bonds may be perceived as lower risk, but whether they are government-guaranteed depends on the issuer and structure. They can still carry credit and interest-rate risk.
Savings bonds are government-issued bonds intended for individual investors and are generally viewed as lower risk than many market-traded bonds, although terms vary by country and product. U.S. examples include Series EE bonds, which are typically purchased at face value and earn interest over time, and Series I bonds, which are adjusted for inflation.
These bonds are issued at a discount and pay no periodic interest. They mature at full face value, with the difference between the purchase price and maturity value representing the return. They may appeal to investors seeking a future lump-sum payment, but they do not provide periodic income and their market value can be sensitive to interest-rate changes.
Bonds may play a role in portfolio diversification and income planning, but they still involve risks such as interest-rate risk, credit risk, inflation risk and liquidity risk. Here is a short summary of common considerations when investing in bonds.
Before investing in bonds, investors usually review their financial goals, income needs, risk tolerance and investment horizon. These factors may help determine whether a bond, bond fund or other investment product is appropriate for the portfolio.
Different bond types carry different credit, interest-rate, liquidity and tax risks:
If you prefer not to invest in individual bonds, bond funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may provide exposure to a diversified basket of bonds and professional management. These funds can reduce reliance on a single issuer, but they still carry interest-rate, credit, liquidity and market risk.
Bond prices and yields are inversely related: when market interest rates rise, existing bond prices usually fall, and when market interest rates fall, existing bond prices usually rise. Understanding this relationship is important, especially for investors who may sell bonds before maturity.
Investors may buy bonds through a brokerage account, although the range of available bonds depends on the platform, market and investor eligibility. In some countries, investors may also be able to buy certain government bonds directly through official government platforms.
Periodic reviews may help investors check whether bond holdings still match their financial goals, risk tolerance and income needs. Interest-rate movements, issuer credit quality and changes in personal circumstances can all affect whether the holding remains appropriate.
Bond laddering involves buying bonds with varying maturity dates. This may help spread reinvestment timing and reduce reliance on a single interest-rate environment, although it does not remove interest-rate, credit or liquidity risk. As bonds in the ladder mature, proceeds may be reinvested, but future yields are uncertain.
Bonds may offer potential benefits in a diversified portfolio, but those benefits depend on the issuer, maturity, currency, credit quality and market conditions.
Common potential benefits include:
Many bonds pay interest at regular intervals, usually annually or semi-annually, which may provide a more regular cash flow than some other investments. However, interest payments depend on the issuer meeting its obligations, and income can vary across bond types and bond funds.
For investors with lower risk tolerance, some bonds may be considered as part of a diversified portfolio, depending on the issuer, maturity, currency and objectives. Bonds are often less volatile than equities, particularly highly rated government and corporate bonds, but they are not risk-free. When an individual bond is held to maturity, the face value is due to be repaid if the issuer does not default, but inflation, taxes, fees and currency movements can still affect real returns.
Bonds may add diversification to an investment portfolio, because they can behave differently from equities in some market conditions. This may reduce overall volatility in some portfolios, although correlations can change and bonds can also fall in value.
Certain types of bonds may offer tax benefits in specific jurisdictions. For example, some municipal bonds in the US may provide interest that is exempt from federal income tax and, in some cases, state or local taxes. Tax treatment depends on the bond, investor and jurisdiction.
Compared with equities, many bonds have historically shown lower price volatility, although this varies by issuer, maturity, credit quality and interest-rate conditions. Bond prices can still move sharply, especially for long-duration or lower-quality bonds.
Because many bonds pay fixed interest and have a set maturity date, returns may be more predictable than some other investments if the bond is held to maturity and the issuer meets its obligations. Realised returns can still vary if the bond is sold before maturity, default occurs, inflation reduces purchasing power, or costs, taxes or currency movements apply.
While bonds are typically held for income, they may also generate capital gains or losses if sold before maturity. If market interest rates decline after a bond is purchased, its price may rise, although any realised gain depends on sale price, costs, taxes and market liquidity.
While high-quality bonds are often viewed as less volatile than stocks, they are not risk-free.
Understanding these risks may help investors assess whether bonds fit their objectives, risk tolerance and investment horizon.
One important risk associated with bonds is interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, the market value of existing bonds typically falls because newer bonds may offer higher returns. This can be particularly concerning for investors who may need to sell their bonds before maturity.
Bonds are subject to the issuer's credit risk. If the issuer's financial situation deteriorates, it may fail to make interest payments or repay the principal at maturity, leading to a default. Corporate bonds, especially high-yield (junk) bonds, are more susceptible to this risk than government bonds.
Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's future interest payments and principal repayment. If inflation rises significantly, the fixed payments from bonds may not keep up, reducing the real value of returns.
Some bonds, particularly those from smaller issuers or with lower credit ratings, may be difficult to sell quickly without reducing the price. This lack of liquidity can be a problem if an investor needs to access cash quickly.
Reinvestment risk occurs when a bond matures or is called, and the investor must reinvest the proceeds at a lower interest rate. This is particularly relevant in a declining interest rate environment.
Certain bonds have a call feature that allows the issuer to repay the bond before maturity, usually when interest rates decline. This can be disadvantageous to investors, as it often forces them to reinvest at lower rates.
Although bonds are generally less volatile than stocks, they can still fluctuate in value due to broader market conditions, including changes in economic outlook, political events, or shifts in investor sentiment. This means bonds still carry risk, even when they are considered lower volatility than equities.
Bonds may play a role in a diversified investment strategy by providing income, different risk characteristics from equities and exposure to issuers such as governments or companies.
However, they are not risk-free: prices can fall, issuers can default, inflation can reduce real returns and liquidity can vary. Periodic reviews may help you assess whether bond holdings still match your goals, income needs, time horizon and risk tolerance.