Market Quick Take - Records extend on Hormuz hopes - 5 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Hopes for a Hormuz shipping deal set the tone ahead of a data-heavy, payrolls-capped week.
• Equities: US and European equities reached records, while Asia rebounded sharply as technology shares and lower oil prices lifted sentiment.
• Volatility: Vol firmed even as equities hit records, with hedging building ahead of this week's data.
• Digital Assets: Crypto equities advanced as ETF inflows offset a miner earnings miss and fresh hacking headlines.
• Commodities: Oil extended its slide on Hormuz hopes while copper held near a two-month high.
• Fixed Income: US treasuries rallied strongly on Tuesday as crude oil prices fell sharply
• Currencies: USD weaker on easing geopolitical tensions, lower crude oil prices and lower US treasury yields.

Macro

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, noting that some ships are already transiting the strait.
• Japan’s average cash earnings rose 3.4% year-on-year in June 2026, slightly above May’s revised 3.3% and in line with forecasts. It was the 54th consecutive month of nominal wage growth and the fifth with gains above 3%. Base pay also increased 3.4%. Real wages rose 1.6% for a sixth month, bolstering the case for further central bank rate hikes.
• New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 5.6% in Q2, the highest since 2015 and above expectations for an unchanged 0.4%. Employment was steady at 66.7%, and the increase in the participation rate by 0.3% to 70.7% was the chief driver of the gain in the unemployment rate. Underutilisation climbed to 13.8%, signaling more labour market slack.
• US factory orders fell 0.3% in June 2026 to $656.5 billion after a 1.1% drop in May, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise. Non-durable goods orders fell 1.2%, while durable goods rose 0.5%, with gains in machinery and electronics offset by weaker fabricated metals and transportation equipment.
• US job quits rose by 79,000 to 3.23 million in June 2026, led by leisure and hospitality, trade/transportation/utilities, and construction. The quits rate stayed at 2.0%, near its lowest since 2020, indicating workers remain cautious about changing jobs.
• US job openings fell by 178,000 to 7.36 million in June 2026, below expectations. Hires held at 5.3 million and separations at 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.
• US imports fell 1.8% in June 2026 to $388 billion, with goods down on weaker capital and consumer goods, partly offset by more telecom equipment. Services imports rose slightly, led by intellectual property, transport, and insurance, while travel decline.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 1215 – US Jul. ADP Employment Change
• 1400 – US Jul. ISM Services
• 1430 – US Weekly DoE Crude Oil and Product Inventories

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

• Tuesday: (yesterday): Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar, Merck, HSBC Holdings, Amgen, Arista Networks, McDonald’s, Booking Holdings, Spotify, Pfizer, BP,
• Wednesday: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Western Digital, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Infineon Technologies
• Thursday: Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall, Cloudflare, DataDog, Airbnb, Constellation Energy
• Friday: Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software,

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to a record 7,736.52, the Dow gained 1.7% to a record 54,085.88 and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.3%, as strong earnings and falling oil prices revived risk appetite. Palantir surged 29.5% after raising its revenue and profit outlook, while Caterpillar climbed 5.6% after beating estimates on resilient equipment demand. After hours, SpaceX fell 7.5% despite stronger-than-expected revenue as heavy investment and cash burn drew scrutiny, while AMD dropped 8.8% after its third-quarter outlook failed to clear elevated expectations. Disney and Eli Lilly report next.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 gained 0.7% to a record 656.86, while the DAX rose 0.8%, the CAC 40 added 0.6% and Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 1.3% to a new high. Technology and mining shares led as copper prices strengthened and earnings remained supportive. Antofagasta surged 6.9% with the broader mining sector, ASML rose 3.7% as chip stocks rebounded and Bayer gained 2.4% after an unexpected profit increase. Lufthansa fell 8.2% after cutting its outlook, showing that earnings season still carried a few trapdoors. Siemens Energy and Novo Nordisk take focus today.
• Asia: Asian equities rallied today, reversing Tuesday’s weakness as lower oil prices and Wall Street’s technology rebound lifted sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi traded around 4% higher, Japan’s Nikkei rose 3.5% and Taiwan’s Taiex gained 3%, while Hong Kong was broadly flat and mainland Chinese shares advanced. SK Hynix jumped 6.9% and Samsung Electronics gained 2.9% as memory-chip shares rebounded, while Advantest rose 8.0% with Japanese semiconductor names and TSMC added 3.0% in Taipei. The strong bounce reduced some recent stress, but Korea’s sharp daily swings showed that the AI trade remained energetic rather than calm.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 16.50 | VIX FUTURES: 17.85 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: NORMAL (126.41) | MARKET REGIME: LOW-VOLATILITY BULL | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Tuesday's Hormuz de-escalation and a chip-led earnings rally pushed the S&P 500 to a record close, extending into Wednesday's Asia session even as AMD and SpaceX missed on guidance after hours. VIX firmed to 16.50 and VIX1D jumped nearly 47% to 13.86, with this week's data keeping near-term hedging demand alive.
• The term structure stayed in contango out to VIX1Y at 22.89, SKEW eased to a more normal 126.41 and MOVE fell to 77.56. SPXW pricing implies a 47-point (0.61%) move for today's expiry and 96 points (1.23%) into Friday 7 August, with Thursday's PCE the next catalyst.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~64,112 +0.11% | ETHEREUM ~1,866 -0.09% | IBIT 36.39 +0.64% | ETHA 14.15 +0.28% | AS OF ~05:55 CET

• Digital assets held a constructive tone into Wednesday, tracking the broader risk rally as Hormuz de-escalation and AI-earnings strength lifted sentiment. Spot traded in a tight overnight range while Coinbase and Strategy each added around 3%. Cipher Mining sank over 15% after a wide Q2 miss and new executive stock-sale plans.
• US spot bitcoin ETFs drew over $170 million of net inflows on Tuesday, led by IBIT's $111 million, as institutional buying offset fresh hacking and outflow headlines elsewhere in the sector.

Commodities

• Brent fell 5.3% Tuesday to settle around $79 a barrel, its lowest since 10 July, as Hormuz deal optimism intensified; it extended losses overnight to about $78.75 after Axios reported Washington, Tehran and Oman were nearing an agreement to reopen the strait, with a Wednesday announcement targeted. WTI slipped toward $74.50, taking the two-session decline past 10%, its steepest such drop in weeks.
• Gold rose 1.4% overnight to around $4,135/oz, extending Monday's advance alongside Treasuries as easing Middle East tensions and falling real yields supported the metal's dual role as inflation hedge and safe haven; silver and platinum firmed on the same bid.
• LME copper broke above $14,000 a tonne Tuesday, its highest in two months, as traders weighed swelling US inventories ahead of an expected Trump administration decision on import tariffs; the cash-to-three-month spread widened sharply to $102.38 a tonne, its highest since October 2025, signalling tightening near-term supply even as headline stockpiles build.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• The US Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) is due today at 8:30am ET and represents the key near-term risk for the bond market. Dealers broadly expect the Treasury to reiterate its guidance of no near-term increases in coupon auction sizes as the Treasury seems intent on increasing bill issuance to finance ever-larger US deficits.
• US Treasuries rallied as crude oil prices were punched sharply lower Tuesday, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield trading early Wednesday below 4.19%, nearly five basis points below Monday’s close. The 10-year treasury yield trades 4.60%, down eight basis points from Monday’s level and near a two-week low ahead of key US economic data for the remainder of the week, including the July ISM Services survey today and July jobs data on Friday.
• US high-yield bonds rallied again Tuesday, with the Bloomberg index of the spread between high-yield bonds and US treasuries tightening five basis points to 266 basis points and now down from last week’s peak of 289 basis points.

Currencies

• The US dollar weakened with the drop in geopolitical tensions and crude oil prices and the dip in US treasury yields. EURUSD rose as high as 1.1541 by early Wednesday and AUDUSD as high a s 0.7056 in relatively muted action.
• USDJPY rolled over again early Wednesday, trading near 157.50 after finding resistance Tuesday just ahead of 158.00 and the 200-day moving average just above that level. EURJPY traded slightly lower at 181.72 early Wednesday after an overnight high just ahead of 182.00.
• The New Zealand Dollar weakened after a jump in the Q2 NZ unemployment rate (see above) as RBNZ policy tightening expectations were lowered. AUDNZD traded back above 1.2000 by early European hours Wednesday for the first time in nearly a week.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis