Correction time again as big US retailers set to report?

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Slide deck for today's podcast.

Today’s links

I came across these guys late last week - great shop talk from an options traders’ point of view with charts and making it clear the degree to which options-linked flows are important for the day-to-day moves, and even intraday moves in the case of 0DTE options, impact market price action and market structure. Their latest episode discusses the August monthly expire and the current market environment. Great discussion of markets in real-time - highly recommended.

An X post from Alexander Stahel that eviscerates everything about Putinism and how the country is run. A little foretaste: “Another “peace summit” is ahead — and as usual, the Kremlin shows up like an arsonist at the fire-safety meeting. And a quote within the post from chess great Gary Kasparov " Some countries have the mob. In Russia, the mob has a country." Russia is a horrific tragedy.

Here is a long-form take from a supposed KGB agent in an interview from 1984 on “the four stages of ideological subversion”. He spins an amazing tale and it is a riveting interview, especially for those of us that can remember what it felt like to live in pre-Gorbachev cold war days. And while it is compelling, I don’t think any country or its intelligence services could engineer anything so completely in a series of Machiavellian maneuvers like he describes, even if they can act as an accelerant. You can see how this narrative supports the Trump/MAGA and even Project 2025 narratives neatly, but are these really the answers or just the most effective means of destroying the old order? Can any new narrative find enough acceptance to capture a strong majority of Americans?

Saxo’s own Ole Hansen was a guest on the widely followed Macrovoices, talking through all things commodities, including precious metals and copper, crude, rare earths and more.

Chart of the Day - Target (TGT)

Beaten down Target, set to report earnings on Wednesday, has higher margins than its competitor Walmart (reports Thursday), but is valued at such a discount because it has gone into a steady slight decline over the last three years. It has continued to raise its dividend slightly - currently at a chunky 4.4%, but really needs to turn around the growth rates and meet Walmart and Amazon.com head-to-head on online shopping and grocery offerings to have a chance. With its steep valuation discount based on fears of a continued slow decline followed by the hope of some stabilization next year, arresting the decline in the business sooner rather than later and shifting to a top- and bottom-line expansion at least in line with the nominal US economy would be a boon for shareholders. For now, an additional concern is that Target is heavily exposed to tariffs, seen by a MarketWatch reporter quoting analysts as twice as exposed to the tariffs as Walmart, mostly as its grocery business is far smaller than Walmart’s as a portion of its revenues, with so much “stuff” produced outside the US. According to their analysis, Target would need to raise prices an average 8% across its product assortment to maintain margins.