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Morning Brew September 8 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Short term bear market rally or the beginning or a turnaround?
Good Morning
Lower Oil Prices and falling Rates in the US provide a relief rally and in equities and suspend the rise of the USD . The Dow Jones gained 1.4%, the S&P 500 1.84% and the Nasdaq 2.14% The GER40 is back at above 1300.
EURUSD is back near parity, GBPUSD 1.1500 and USDJPY 144. Gold and Silver rise to 1715 and 18.47.
All eyes will be the ECB which is looking to announce the biggest rate hike in it`s history with a probability of 70% as of right now.
The rate announcement will be at 13:45 CET and at 14:30 the press conference will shed light on the banks rationale. It is stuck between a rock and a hard place with economic worries and debt laden economies on the one hand and inflation on the other.
Jerome Powell is speaking this afternoon and might make comments to move the market, 50 defence ministers are meeting in Germany to discuss aid for Ukraine.
Liz Tuss, the new UK prime minister will speak in parliament today, outlining a plan to fight high energy costs.
The EU energy ministers will hold an emergency meeting tomorrow and seek a cap on the price of Russian Gas.
The overall question is if we are seeing a longer turnaround of a short term bear market rally - sentiment will be the key.
Economic Data
Thursday; CH Unemployment Rate, ECB Rate decision, US Jobs data
Friday: CN PPI, CA Unemployment rate
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
10-year Japanese Govt. Bond - Sep 2022 (JGB1U2) will expire 9th Sep at 1:00 GMT
Low Sulphur Gasoil - Sep 2022 (FPU2) will expire 9th Sep at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
JP225SEP22 will expire 8th Sep at 2:00 GMT