Morning Brew September 29 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Quarter End - Shutdown Looms -Yields Calmer
Please be aware that I will be off the next two weeks and the next morning brew will be available on October 17. It will be very interesting to see where we will be trading then – Our strats call for stagflation was spot on – watch for the q4 outlook coming next week.
As Q3 is coming to an end, the PCE number today will most likely decide if we end the quarter on a more positive note or not – at the moment it looks promising.
Yesterday, Indexes closed a little higher with the Dow up 0.2%, the S&P 0.5%, the Nasdaq 0.8% - the main cause was some relief on the yield front. The 10 year US Yield reached nearly 4.7% yesterday but receded to 4.57. This allowed the Dollar Index to fall back below 106 to 105.92. EURUSD is now 1.0587, Cable 1.2237 and USDJPY 149.07. Silver rose good 50 cents off yesterdays lows to now trade at 23.01, Gold is lagging at 1868.
UBS recovered to 22.656 yesterday.
This morning Japan`s Unemployment rate came higher than expected at 2.7% vs 2.6% expected and the UK GDP in line on a quarterly basis but better than expected on an annual basis. The KOF indicator from Switzerland at 9 and European CPI will closely watched until the PCE will be released at 14:30 CET, the expectation is Monthly: PCE Price Index 0.5%, Core 0.2%, Annually 3.5% and core 3.9%.
The Final University of Michigan Sentiment is expected at 67.7 at 16:00.
Next to economic data, expect quarter and position adjustments and Window dressing and any news on the US debt ceiling where negotiations and initiatives seem to be going nowhere fast.
Trade safely and have a great start into Q4.
- Data Japan CPI, UK GDP, Swiss KOF; DE unemployment, EU HICP, US PCE, University of Michigan
Physically Settled Futures
- SBV3, HOv3, RBV3 will expire 29 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- OILUKNOV23 will expire 29 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT